Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 16, 2017

September 16, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Ezmosh 2.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Arrival 4.00 2.9 5-1
7 6 Tiz Mischief 6.00 3 6-1
8 7 Own Agenda 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Glass Bridge 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Rushin Tothecircle 8.00 6.3 12-1 Scr
4 4 Just Like Richie 12.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Bryzzo 15.00 6.9 13-1 Scr
6 6 Yaroslavl 20.00 7.9 15-1 Scr
2 2 Meistermind 6.00 8.3 16-1
10 8 Dixieland Rags 20.00 8.9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Stronger Than Ever 6.00 3.4 6-1
15 15 Cosmic Burst 12.00 3.7 7-1 Scr
2 2 Lou’s Chardonnay 15.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Pinot 8.00 4.1 8-1
12 12 Cacahuatita 20.00 4.4 8-1 Scr
4 4 My Royalty 8.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Trust 3.50 5.3 10-1
16 16 Tiger Lisa 15.00 5.3 10-1 Scr
13 13 Dagney’s Warrior 15.00 6.4 12-1 Scr
1 1 Classy Act 6.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Flash n’ Dance 4.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Bella Moon 12.00 7 13-1
14 14 Querceta 12.00 7.9 15-1 Scr
8 8 Tell Your Mama 20.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 Eight Minute Ellie 15.00 9.3 18-1
6 6 Cucciolo 12.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Storm Advisory 4.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Goats Town 5.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Cowboy Rhythm 2.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Vaporman 8.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Race Me Home (IRE) 3.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Obvious One 30.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Shareholder Value 10.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Blame Angel 6.00 7.1 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 8 Swiping Dan 5.00 1.1 2-1
7 6 Bravazo 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Tenkoz 5.00 3.4 6-1
11 11 Gambit 4.00 4.4 8-1 Scr
4 3 Derby Memories 6.00 5 9-1
6 5 Grade 15.00 5.4 10-1
10 9 Eli We Trust 20.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 Wolverine 8.00 6.1 12-1
3 2 Twist Off 6.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Quality Rolls 15.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Mr Freeze 15.00 8.3 16-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Laney 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 Bella Bailar 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Miss Kentucky 5.00 4 8-1
3 3 Queen Bernardina 4.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Tu Se Manques 3.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Mythical Tale 6.00 6 11-1
4 4 Star Quest 15.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Abundant Flurry 15.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Chevy to the Levy 15.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Princess Warrior 8.00 3 6-1
7 7 So Refined 12.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Fonda Romana 8.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Segment 3.00 4 8-1
1 1 Absolute Love 12.00 4.3 8-1
13 13 Security 12.00 4.3 8-1 Scr
14 14 Foxtrot Sally 4.00 4.6 9-1 Scr
15 15 Jazzy Doll 15.00 6.1 12-1 Scr
16 16 Golden Rose 10.00 6.3 12-1 Scr
4 4 Syrah 8.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Miss Katie Bug 10.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Mia Mischief 4.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Brenda’s Fever 20.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Lil Moresummertime 12.00 9.3 18-1
10 10 Biloxi Princess 15.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 Radar Vision 15.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
15 15 My Eminence 10.00 2.1 4-1 Scr
9 9 Dreamrider 4.00 4 8-1
12 12 Confiscate 5.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Reprove 5.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Farat 6.00 6.1 12-1
7A 7 Jon Knowsthecode 0.00 7.7 15-1
16A 16 Fireball Shot 0.00 8.1 15-1
5 4 Flash Harry 6.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Yondering 6.00 8.4 16-1
14 14 All Day Trip 15.00 9.1 17-1 Scr
13 13 Lo’s Journey 10.00 9.3 18-1 Scr
2 1 Ragtime Rebel 20.00 10.1 19-1
3 2 Harlan’s Dynamo 20.00 11.1 21-1
4 3 I Am Iron Max 30.00 11.9 22-1
1 7 Going Rate 20.00 12.6 24-1
6 5 Bad Intentions 6.00 13.3 25-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Locust Grove S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 7 Tiger Moth 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Brooklynsway 10.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Romantic Vision 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Mo d’Amour 4.00 4 8-1
2 2 Blue Prize (ARG) 3.50 5 9-1
5 5 Fuhriously Kissed 5.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Sweetgrass 6.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Open Mind S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Ivy Bell 1.60 1.9 4-1
2 2 Mayla 1.80 2.4 5-1
1 1 Grace’s Treasure 5.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Athena 3.50 3.4 6-1
3 3 Profound Moment 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Tricky Zippy 12.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Iroquois S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Ten City 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 Hollywood Star 2.50 2.7 5-1
10 10 Mo Diddley 10.00 3 6-1
7 7 Flameaway 4.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 The Tabulator 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Ebben 20.00 6.6 12-1
4 4 Tres Equis 8.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Big Gemmy 15.00 7 13-1
6 6 Smart Remark 15.00 9.3 18-1
3 3 Pont Du Gard 15.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Pocahontas S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 8 Sunny Skies 4.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Take Charge Paula 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Snowfire 6.00 4 8-1
12 12 Kelly’s Humor 4.50 4.6 9-1
10 10 Upset Brewing 5.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Sultry 10.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Patrona Margarita 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Vision of Justice 20.00 7 13-1
5 5 Primo Extremo 8.00 7.7 15-1
1 1 Lady Freedom 30.00 9 17-1
4 4 Harbor Lights 8.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Firstmate 20.00 11.9 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.