September 16, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
1 |
1 |
Ezmosh |
2.00 |
1.9 |
4-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Arrival |
4.00 |
2.9 |
5-1 |
|
7 |
6 |
Tiz Mischief |
6.00 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
8 |
7 |
Own Agenda |
10.00 |
4.7 |
9-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Glass Bridge |
12.00 |
4.9 |
9-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Rushin Tothecircle |
8.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
Scr |
4 |
4 |
Just Like Richie |
12.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
|
11 |
11 |
Bryzzo |
15.00 |
6.9 |
13-1 |
Scr |
6 |
6 |
Yaroslavl |
20.00 |
7.9 |
15-1 |
Scr |
2 |
2 |
Meistermind |
6.00 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
|
10 |
8 |
Dixieland Rags |
20.00 |
8.9 |
17-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
3 |
3 |
Stronger Than Ever |
6.00 |
3.4 |
6-1 |
|
15 |
15 |
Cosmic Burst |
12.00 |
3.7 |
7-1 |
Scr |
2 |
2 |
Lou’s Chardonnay |
15.00 |
3.7 |
7-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Pinot |
8.00 |
4.1 |
8-1 |
|
12 |
12 |
Cacahuatita |
20.00 |
4.4 |
8-1 |
Scr |
4 |
4 |
My Royalty |
8.00 |
5.1 |
10-1 |
|
11 |
11 |
Trust |
3.50 |
5.3 |
10-1 |
|
16 |
16 |
Tiger Lisa |
15.00 |
5.3 |
10-1 |
Scr |
13 |
13 |
Dagney’s Warrior |
15.00 |
6.4 |
12-1 |
Scr |
1 |
1 |
Classy Act |
6.00 |
6.6 |
12-1 |
|
10 |
10 |
Flash n’ Dance |
4.00 |
6.7 |
13-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Bella Moon |
12.00 |
7 |
13-1 |
|
14 |
14 |
Querceta |
12.00 |
7.9 |
15-1 |
Scr |
8 |
8 |
Tell Your Mama |
20.00 |
8.6 |
16-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Eight Minute Ellie |
15.00 |
9.3 |
18-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Cucciolo |
12.00 |
9.4 |
18-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
3 |
3 |
Storm Advisory |
4.00 |
1.3 |
2-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Goats Town |
5.00 |
3.6 |
7-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Cowboy Rhythm |
2.50 |
3.6 |
7-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Vaporman |
8.00 |
4.3 |
8-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Race Me Home (IRE) |
3.00 |
4.6 |
9-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Obvious One |
30.00 |
5.4 |
10-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Shareholder Value |
10.00 |
6.1 |
12-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Blame Angel |
6.00 |
7.1 |
14-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
9 |
8 |
Swiping Dan |
5.00 |
1.1 |
2-1 |
|
7 |
6 |
Bravazo |
6.00 |
3.1 |
6-1 |
|
8 |
7 |
Tenkoz |
5.00 |
3.4 |
6-1 |
|
11 |
11 |
Gambit |
4.00 |
4.4 |
8-1 |
Scr |
4 |
3 |
Derby Memories |
6.00 |
5 |
9-1 |
|
6 |
5 |
Grade |
15.00 |
5.4 |
10-1 |
|
10 |
9 |
Eli We Trust |
20.00 |
5.4 |
10-1 |
|
5 |
4 |
Wolverine |
8.00 |
6.1 |
12-1 |
|
3 |
2 |
Twist Off |
6.00 |
7.3 |
14-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Quality Rolls |
15.00 |
7.3 |
14-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Mr Freeze |
15.00 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
5 |
5 |
Laney |
4.00 |
2 |
4-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Bella Bailar |
5.00 |
2 |
4-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Miss Kentucky |
5.00 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Queen Bernardina |
4.50 |
4.3 |
8-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Tu Se Manques |
3.00 |
4.9 |
9-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Mythical Tale |
6.00 |
6 |
11-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Star Quest |
15.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Abundant Flurry |
15.00 |
7.3 |
14-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Chevy to the Levy |
15.00 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
3 |
3 |
Princess Warrior |
8.00 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
So Refined |
12.00 |
3.1 |
6-1 |
|
12 |
12 |
Fonda Romana |
8.00 |
3.3 |
6-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Segment |
3.00 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Absolute Love |
12.00 |
4.3 |
8-1 |
|
13 |
13 |
Security |
12.00 |
4.3 |
8-1 |
Scr |
14 |
14 |
Foxtrot Sally |
4.00 |
4.6 |
9-1 |
Scr |
15 |
15 |
Jazzy Doll |
15.00 |
6.1 |
12-1 |
Scr |
16 |
16 |
Golden Rose |
10.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
Scr |
4 |
4 |
Syrah |
8.00 |
6.6 |
12-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Miss Katie Bug |
10.00 |
6.6 |
12-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Mia Mischief |
4.00 |
6.9 |
13-1 |
|
11 |
11 |
Brenda’s Fever |
20.00 |
9.1 |
17-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Lil Moresummertime |
12.00 |
9.3 |
18-1 |
|
10 |
10 |
Biloxi Princess |
15.00 |
9.4 |
18-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Radar Vision |
15.00 |
10.1 |
19-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
15 |
15 |
My Eminence |
10.00 |
2.1 |
4-1 |
Scr |
9 |
9 |
Dreamrider |
4.00 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
12 |
12 |
Confiscate |
5.00 |
4.1 |
8-1 |
|
11 |
11 |
Reprove |
5.00 |
4.7 |
9-1 |
|
10 |
10 |
Farat |
6.00 |
6.1 |
12-1 |
|
7A |
7 |
Jon Knowsthecode |
0.00 |
7.7 |
15-1 |
|
16A |
16 |
Fireball Shot |
0.00 |
8.1 |
15-1 |
|
5 |
4 |
Flash Harry |
6.00 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Yondering |
6.00 |
8.4 |
16-1 |
|
14 |
14 |
All Day Trip |
15.00 |
9.1 |
17-1 |
Scr |
13 |
13 |
Lo’s Journey |
10.00 |
9.3 |
18-1 |
Scr |
2 |
1 |
Ragtime Rebel |
20.00 |
10.1 |
19-1 |
|
3 |
2 |
Harlan’s Dynamo |
20.00 |
11.1 |
21-1 |
|
4 |
3 |
I Am Iron Max |
30.00 |
11.9 |
22-1 |
|
1 |
7 |
Going Rate |
20.00 |
12.6 |
24-1 |
|
6 |
5 |
Bad Intentions |
6.00 |
13.3 |
25-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Locust Grove S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
7 |
7 |
Tiger Moth |
3.00 |
1.9 |
4-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Brooklynsway |
10.00 |
2.3 |
4-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Romantic Vision |
4.00 |
3.9 |
7-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Mo d’Amour |
4.00 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Blue Prize (ARG) |
3.50 |
5 |
9-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Fuhriously Kissed |
5.00 |
5.4 |
10-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Sweetgrass |
6.00 |
5.6 |
11-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Open Mind S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
4 |
4 |
Ivy Bell |
1.60 |
1.9 |
4-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Mayla |
1.80 |
2.4 |
5-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Grace’s Treasure |
5.00 |
2.7 |
5-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Athena |
3.50 |
3.4 |
6-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Profound Moment |
15.00 |
5.1 |
10-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Tricky Zippy |
12.00 |
5.4 |
10-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Iroquois S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
1 |
1 |
Ten City |
3.00 |
2 |
4-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Hollywood Star |
2.50 |
2.7 |
5-1 |
|
10 |
10 |
Mo Diddley |
10.00 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Flameaway |
4.00 |
3.4 |
6-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
The Tabulator |
6.00 |
4.9 |
9-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Ebben |
20.00 |
6.6 |
12-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Tres Equis |
8.00 |
6.7 |
13-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Big Gemmy |
15.00 |
7 |
13-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Smart Remark |
15.00 |
9.3 |
18-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Pont Du Gard |
15.00 |
9.4 |
18-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Pocahontas S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
8 |
8 |
Sunny Skies |
4.00 |
3.6 |
7-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Take Charge Paula |
6.00 |
3.7 |
7-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Snowfire |
6.00 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
12 |
12 |
Kelly’s Humor |
4.50 |
4.6 |
9-1 |
|
10 |
10 |
Upset Brewing |
5.00 |
4.7 |
9-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Sultry |
10.00 |
5.9 |
11-1 |
|
11 |
11 |
Patrona Margarita |
20.00 |
6.9 |
13-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Vision of Justice |
20.00 |
7 |
13-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Primo Extremo |
8.00 |
7.7 |
15-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Lady Freedom |
30.00 |
9 |
17-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Harbor Lights |
8.00 |
9.1 |
17-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Firstmate |
20.00 |
11.9 |
22-1 |
|
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.