September 14, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Silver Lode | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flashy Ruthie | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fionetta | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hold Me Tight | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hope N Wishes | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Away She Glows | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kara’s Angel | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Chantses | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wayaway | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Atlantic Blue | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Phyllis’s Flag | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jete Ete | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Launch Away | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | In Focus | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Shadow Valley | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Refashion | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Commercial Appeal | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Baltic Star | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Descarado | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Time for Parading | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Let’s Skip Fiji | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Miss Livingston | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Diastole | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Domina | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Steel Strike | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Glamala | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Teach Me Tonight | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gwendalyn Sue | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Americanperfection | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tiger Eyes | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Queenoftheroad | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Dozer | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | J Jett | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Appollos Baby Girl | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Etoile d’Allie | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Turned Back Twice | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Looktheotherway | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | St. Louis City | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mission Storm | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Short and Sassy | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sing One Song | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | R U Forreal | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chica Bonita | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hide and Street | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Meetmeforasmoke | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Three Cat Rules | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Troublesome | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Allaire | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Warretta | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brittney On Blades | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lu Sea | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Darling Sofia | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Holy Plan | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sullyvin’s G G | 1.20 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star of the Market | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lemon Grove | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Overdriven Cat | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sweet Abigail | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Taste of Raj | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Discreet Charm | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Mountain Momma | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Karenina | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky No Robbery | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Button Mushroom | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Merri Mesa | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cubs Win | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Paulette | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Satiate | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Renewed Energy | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Real de Jalpa | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Julie Be Quick | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Aviating | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.