September 3, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Smokem’s Charm | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Zip | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sudden Surprise | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Proper Freud | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Mighty Zealous | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pegasus Red | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 5 | Piquet | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Way Smart | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Passage | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 15A | 15 | Spa Treatment | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Got the Gist | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Hardly Mate | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Danielle’s Pride | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | La Moneda | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Smart and Sassy | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kat O Mine | 6.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 3 | Bayshore Beauty | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Land Mine | 0.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Reconsider It | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 2 | Halcyon | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Words of Love | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Carve | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rockport Kat | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rich Daddy | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Conquest Bigluck E | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flash Trading | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Anna Rae | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Enterprise Value | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Say Cin Cin | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sand Shark | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jump for Joy | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fairybrook | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Short Kakes | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | Feed Me Carats | 8.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gold Lace | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 4 | Cashless Society | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cha Cha Heels | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Woundwithhereyes | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 1 | Courtly Kitty | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Promise | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Unbridledadventure | 4.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Can’tcatchtheraxx | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Missy’s Storm | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Lone Sentry | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Infield Is In | 30.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Get the Facts | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 3 | Tom’s Music | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 14A | 14 | Transfer Pricing | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Johnny Action | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Mad Munnys | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 8 | Lone Sailor | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Voting Control | 0.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Campaign | 4.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 7 | Outvoted | 3.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Blockade | 6.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 5 | E J’s Revenge | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tejas Ranger (IRE) | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Mockery | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dancing | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | Pink Sands | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Mojo | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Norma’s Charm | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Elenathena | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Indy Union | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Caledonia Road | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | My Bronx Tail | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Aliphant | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Wicked Obsession | 4.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Silver Fern | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Fingerpaint | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Riley’s Choice | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Scheme | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rubilinda | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Tamit (IRE) | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 2 | Kahrumana | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11A | 11 | Overnegotiate | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Ladies Day | 3.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miko | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Majestic Bonnie | 2.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 14A | 14 | Thirstforthecup | 0.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bride Street | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 4 | Two Hot Betty | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fly By | 30.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Kirby’s Penny | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bow Town Cat | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Luz Mimi | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stormy’s Song | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Libby’s Tail | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sheplaysthefield | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tasteful | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mizz Tutu | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stay Fond | 6.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Prioress S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Student Body | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dawn the Destroyer | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nonna Mela | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Downtown Mama | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Royal Inheritance | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Vertical Oak | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sister Kan | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Yorkiepoo Princess | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Golden Mischief | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12A | 12 | Lake Party | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 16A | 16 | Stoney Bennett | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Cross Multiply | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Scoopsie Patato | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fair Archer | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Crusader Cat | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Forty Lengths | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Blue Atlas | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Engineers Report | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Conforto | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Burkie | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 8 | Zigmund | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Anything Pazible | 5.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 9 | Disco Outlaw | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ambition Mission | 2.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Brockmoninoff | 15.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.