August 30, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Liam’s World | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ouro Verde | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Special Risk | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mugu | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Pearl | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Barstool Warrior | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | You Promise | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Renewal | 3.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Communion Money | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Iron Power | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Roman Approval | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4A | 4 | Altar Boy | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Tasit | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Posse | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2A | 2 | Bonus Points | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’ll Call | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Call Provision | 4.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Soluble (GER) | 0.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | King of New York | 5.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Souper Knight | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Core Portfolio | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Castaway | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dunk a Din | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Swivel | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Motown Sound | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Erik the Red | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Street Heat | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Subic Bay | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 6A | 6 | Eternal Vow | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Everything’s Copa | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5B | 5 | Foreign Affair | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Furtive Glance | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Transaction Tax | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 5 | More Than a Legend | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Factoring | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8B | 8 | Kusama | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Summer Punch | 0.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Monavista Crossing | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | R Lucky Charm | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Avery Maeve | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hannah’s Smile | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | May Flowers | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tarquinia | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Might Be | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Hoponthebusgus | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Marnesia Big Girl | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Misty On Pointe | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gifted Lady | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Boule | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz the Light | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wise Strike | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Presumptuous | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Yaalail | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seam | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Strombolian | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Moana | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Just Got Out | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Durable Goods | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dovecote | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flower Valley | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Palinodie (FR) | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Barrel of Dreams | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Crimson Frost | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Stay Fond | 2.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Tisbury | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Say Cin Cin | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Seafire (IRE) | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Mr. Crow | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cavil | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gray Sky | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Foreset | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patternrecognition | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Curious Cal | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Pagliacci | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | Riff Raff | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Strong Yen | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – With Anticipation S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Catholic Boy | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Earth | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Machtree | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Evaluator | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Untamed Domain | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Trumpi | 3.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Seabhac | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Wise Treaty | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Morrison | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Irish Territory (IRE) | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nauti Buoy | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Under Suspicion | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Salty Smile | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Little Nanny | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Climb the Ladder | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sunblock | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Berning Rose | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Asiliveandbreathe | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Here’s Wattever | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Reyana Reya Dreams | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.