August 27, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Thirst for Victory | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Top Fortitude | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Notorious | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Caniform | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hard Hitter | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rossie Val | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ninety One Assault | 8.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rough Sea | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Battle Ready | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Wage Acceleration | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6B | 6 | Electro | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spring On Curlin | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Data Room | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5B | 5 | Markitoff | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Bootlegger (FR) | 1.40 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Junonia | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Harlan Punch | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Portfolio Manager | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bancroft Hall | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Karma Delight | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Perro Rojo | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Surtap | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Just Got Out | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Hold Me Down | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Truth in the Lies | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cinder | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | C Islandsurprise | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ranger Lady | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Given Fire | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Quick Quick Quick | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Everybody Loves Me | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wine Halo | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twofer | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Smarty Smart | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Navajo | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Deal | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tapete Claire | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Murika | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Moolah Schmoolah | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Frost Wise | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | She’sakittykat | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mo Style | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sugarille | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Impazible Creek | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Truly Courageous | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kinsale | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | First Appeal | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wantagh Queen | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Treatherlikestar | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Decorator Jenn | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queen of Spades | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Swayed | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Laura’s Patriot | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tiffanys Freud | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Amber Dancer | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mo Promise | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Snag | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Patriot Drive | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Space Mountain | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cite | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Hembree | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 14A | 14 | Dunk a Din | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Carlino | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | King of Spades | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Astounding | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 6 | Any Questions | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dr. Edgar | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Jupiter Rising | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Romans Paradise | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Scatoga | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Smart N Fancy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Miss Ella | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pretty Perfection | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paquita Coqueta (CHI) | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ginger N Rye | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Carolina Shag | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fair Point | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ava’s Kitten | 4.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Katie Mae (IRE) | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wheatfield | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Royal Inheritance | 2.50 | 9.1 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Ultimate Holiday | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rumble Doll | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chanteline | 12.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fire Key | 30.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Gio Game | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Reality Queen | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Fortune Street | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Significant Form | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Make Merry | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Data Dependent | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | My New Daughter | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Cool Beans | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Silver Fern | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Matty’s Magnum | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Amity | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Cyrielle | 5.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Fingerpaint | 5.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Love Mo | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fairy Link | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.