August 19, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Turbo Street (AUS) | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Mills | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | King of New York | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | River Date | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Southside Warrior | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Docs Legacy (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Tashreeh | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 4 | Rum Tum Tugger | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ezmosh | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Discovered | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Honorable Treasure | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Escarapela | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Witch Doctor | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Another | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Congruity | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 7 | Kentucky Club | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Make It Work | 3.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 14A | 14 | The Best Candy | 0.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Hoard | 0.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Piantagrane | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Blockade | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hyndford | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Cullum Road | 15.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Pico Chick | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hexameter | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wildcat Belle | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Murrell’s Belle | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kentucky Dancer | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Asian’s Way | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paluxy Princess | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Marengo Road | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Chiropractor | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Manitoulin | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flashy Jewel | 1.60 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Aquaphobia | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hello Don Julio | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scholar Athlete | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Doctor Mounty | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Black Sea (FR) | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Avery Island | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Belle Tapisserie | 20.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Allured | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Variant Perception | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bow Ready | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Sermon | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Currency | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | First Warrior | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pure Shot | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tweeter in Chief | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Want | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Race Me Home (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Meantime | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Curlins Vow | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wine Not | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5A | 5 | Blame Us All | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Battle Midway | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Starship Zeus | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Caviar Czar (IRE) | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Hookup | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Monaco | 0.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mom’s On Strike | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Giada Vegas | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bow Town Cat | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Vagabond | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Great Import | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Miss Kentucky | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Just Got Out | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 3A | 3 | La Sola Ranger | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Knarsdale | 5.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 10 | Glory to Kitten | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chastise | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bonita Springs | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ellery Lane (IRE) | 4.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Lake Placid S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Uni (GB) | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | La Coronel | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Proctor’s Ledge | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coasted | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Berned | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Party Boat | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Alabama S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Salty | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unchained Melody | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | It Tiz Well | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | New Money Honey | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lockdown | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Elate | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Actress | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mopotism | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Holy Helena | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Assertive | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Avery | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Boule | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Tapella | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Wake Island | 0.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Time to Flirt | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Speighgal | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | No Cats Allowed | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Misericordia (GB) | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fashion Week | 6.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 6 | Aoife | 2.50 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Economies of Scale | 1.60 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Length | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Remarqued | 4.50 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Star Maven (IRE) | 3.50 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | A Change of Heart | 10.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.