Saratoga Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, August 19, 2017

August 19, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Turbo Street (AUS) 1.80 2.3 4-1 Scr
1 1 Mills 8.00 2.4 5-1
4 2 King of New York 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 3 River Date 3.00 4.1 8-1
8 5 Southside Warrior 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Docs Legacy (IRE) 8.00 5.6 11-1 Scr
3 3 Tashreeh 5.00 6 11-1 Scr
7 4 Rum Tum Tugger 12.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 7 Ezmosh 5.00 2.7 5-1 Scr
8 5 Discovered 4.50 3 6-1
11 8 Honorable Treasure 20.00 3.7 7-1
13A 13 Escarapela 0.00 4.7 9-1
9 6 Witch Doctor 6.00 5 9-1
12 9 Another 10.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Congruity 3.50 5.9 11-1 Scr
10 7 Kentucky Club 10.00 6.1 12-1
4 2 Make It Work 3.00 6.6 12-1
14A 14 The Best Candy 0.00 7.7 15-1
15 15 Hoard 0.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Piantagrane 30.00 9 17-1 Scr
6 4 Blockade 12.00 9.3 18-1
2 1 Hyndford 20.00 10.4 20-1
5 3 Cullum Road 15.00 10.7 20-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Pico Chick 4.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Hexameter 1.80 3.1 6-1
4 4 Wildcat Belle 2.50 3.7 7-1
6 6 Murrell’s Belle 12.00 4 8-1
7 7 Kentucky Dancer 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Asian’s Way 6.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Paluxy Princess 8.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 8 Marengo Road 6.00 3.3 6-1 Scr
4 4 Chiropractor 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Manitoulin 2.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Flashy Jewel 1.60 4.9 9-1 Scr
7 7 Aquaphobia 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Hello Don Julio 3.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Scholar Athlete 6.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Doctor Mounty 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 Black Sea (FR) 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 8 Avery Island 4.50 2.7 5-1
11 11 Belle Tapisserie 20.00 2.9 5-1 Scr
7 7 Allured 4.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Variant Perception 2.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Bow Ready 30.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Super Sermon 3.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Bourbon Currency 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 First Warrior 8.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Pure Shot 20.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Tweeter in Chief 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Want 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 8 Race Me Home (IRE) 2.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Meantime 15.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Curlins Vow 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Wine Not 3.00 3.5 7-1 Scr
5A 5 Blame Us All 0.00 5.1 10-1
3 1 Battle Midway 8.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Starship Zeus 0.00 5.6 11-1
1 4 Caviar Czar (IRE) 8.00 6 11-1
4 2 Hookup 6.00 6.9 13-1
7A 7 Monaco 0.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Mom’s On Strike 3.00 1.9 4-1
8A 8 Giada Vegas 0.00 2.1 4-1
13 13 Bow Town Cat 0.00 3 6-1
10 10 Vagabond 4.50 5.1 10-1 Scr
2 1 Great Import 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 3 Miss Kentucky 8.00 6.6 12-1
12 12 Just Got Out 6.00 6.7 13-1 Scr
3A 3 La Sola Ranger 0.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Knarsdale 5.00 7.9 15-1 Scr
9 10 Glory to Kitten 6.00 9 17-1
5 5 Chastise 12.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Bonita Springs 15.00 10 19-1
6 6 Ellery Lane (IRE) 4.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Lake Placid S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 5 Uni (GB) 3.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 La Coronel 1.60 2.3 4-1
4 4 Proctor’s Ledge 2.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Coasted 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Berned 15.00 3.9 7-1 Scr
2 2 Party Boat 4.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Alabama S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 6 Salty 4.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Unchained Melody 3.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 It Tiz Well 12.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 New Money Honey 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Lockdown 5.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Elate 6.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Actress 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Mopotism 20.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Holy Helena 4.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6A 6 Assertive 0.00 3 6-1
10 10 Sweet Avery 8.00 3 6-1
14 14 Boule 4.00 3.1 6-1 Scr
16 16 Tapella 0.00 3.9 7-1
13A 13 Wake Island 0.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Time to Flirt 8.00 7 13-1
3 2 Speighgal 15.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 No Cats Allowed 8.00 7.6 14-1
2 1 Misericordia (GB) 15.00 8.6 16-1
11 11 Fashion Week 6.00 9.4 18-1 Scr
1 6 Aoife 2.50 10.1 19-1
15 15 Economies of Scale 1.60 11.3 21-1 Scr
12 12 Length 8.00 11.3 21-1 Scr
7 7 Remarqued 4.50 11.8 22-1
5 4 Star Maven (IRE) 3.50 12 23-1
9 9 A Change of Heart 10.00 13.1 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.