August 18, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Bareeqa | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Table for Six | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 2 | Tiz a Kitten | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 5 | Kate Is a Ten | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 4 | Jcs American Dream | 1.80 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 1 | Eighth Commandment | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ten Penny Princess | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 3 | Graceful Gal | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pinchbeck | 3.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Forever for Always | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Kitty Maddnes | 10.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Jennifer’s Legacy | 8.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Sugar Mags | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Promise | 15.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Special Jo | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nonna’s Boy | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Risetotheoccasion | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Waco | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Saltine Warrior | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tug of War | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lyrical Miracle | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 2 | Silver Dagger | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Purely Boy | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 9A | 9 | Divine Oath | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sportscaster | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Marriage Fever | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 7A | 7 | Docs Legacy (IRE) | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Conquest Twister | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dream Man | 2.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Boss Man | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 4 | Inventor’s Gate | 5.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Spin Cycle | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Paid Admission | 0.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Taoiseach | 0.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Skidmore S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mentality | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Flameaway | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Joopster | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | El Dulce | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Nuclear Option | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dial One | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | My Chinumado | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nauti Buoy | 5.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Missimpazi | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Missbigtimes | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Tayler’s the Boss | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My Roxy Girl | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Under Suspicion | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Droselmeyr’s Smile | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | The Great Johanna | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Finlee | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lucullan | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Bird’s Eye View | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 5 | Shamsaan | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Caviar Czar (IRE) | 2.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Painter’s Rags | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Surprise Twist | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Lunaire | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 2 | Cruz Diez | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Escape Velocity | 4.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Convivial | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Over Look | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 3 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 4.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Distorted Admiral | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Tommy T | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Commandeering | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Malibu Action | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Old Dubai | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Special Intention | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Fully Vested | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aggie’s Honor | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Arch Daddy | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Alex the Terror | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bluegrass Singer | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Carve | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Captain Moss | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | A Fleet Attitude | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Pete’s Play Call | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Luna de Loco | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shuffle Up | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Miss Katie Mae (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Eila | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Sweet Stella | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Appealing Maggie | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Louisville First | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rumble Doll | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Wild About Harry | 3.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Silvertoni | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Play Unified | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | True Charm | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Prize Fight | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Holy Week | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sanavi | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mister Hayes | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heavenly Sun | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Benny Big Boy | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bold Illusion | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Gun for Hire | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | The Orphan Miracle | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.