August 13, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | World Peace | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Three Cat Rules | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shaboom | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vilaro | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mongolian Shopper | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Neuqua | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Appollos Baby Girl | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heidi Who | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Celtic Gold | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Abigail | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Etoile d’Allie | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | La Candelita | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Discreet Charm | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Case Cracker | 3.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jersey Heist | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Meadow Mystique | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flin Flon | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Meadow Gem | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pinchme I’mdreamin | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Conquest Classic | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Plains Warrior | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Costly King | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Oh Oz | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bull Market Richie | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Nobiz Like Sue Biz | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Azeg | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Latin Wild Cat | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Frank the Butcher | 0.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Distracted | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Smart Like a Fox | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Garey Park | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Welovecandy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Valid Storm | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Face to Face | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Canette | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She’s Coal Fired | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Meetmeforasmoke | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | R U Forreal | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lu Sea | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Talent and Grace | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spring Me | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tasseography | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Recognition | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brisson | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiz Gallatin | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | How Sweet It Is | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yes Mongolia | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bizzee Mischief | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Act of Heroism | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Revolt | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Heart Stopper | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bel Air Bullet | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Storming the Beach | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Moonlight Mischief | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dad Are We Here | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dark Humorista | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.