July 30, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Shuvee H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Paid Up Subscriber | 1.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Terra Promessa | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Apologynotaccepted | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Five Hearts | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Enduring Erin | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Industrial Policy | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gotachancetodance | 0.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frozen Hannah | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Annie Rocks | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Aja Brown | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Jet Majesty | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bargaining Table | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Enduring Honor | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dunk a Din | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fielding Gold | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cody’s Notes | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sir Maurice | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Augie’s Coming | 1.60 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Linkappleyard | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Six Schillings | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rate for Me | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mister Maestro | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Liberal Spin | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bookman | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Axtell | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Junket | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Romans Paradise | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Heldatgunpoint | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Party Club | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fortune Street | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Radiant Beauty | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Memorial Drive | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dancing | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Scary Not Scared | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Separationofpowers | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | We Are Family | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Run Time | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Desperado | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bushmill’s Legend | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Im the Captain Now | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Captain Hardship | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All About Voodoo | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Focus Group | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Strong Side | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Snuggling | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oh So Sinister | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | For Greater Glory | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Generous Kitten | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mills | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Divine Oath | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marriage Fever | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | King of New York | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Neoclassic | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Dream Man | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Docs Legacy (IRE) | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | War Bond | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indebted | 6.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rectify | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saratoga Giro | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Runaway Lute | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nobody Move | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Syndergaard | 1.60 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Duquesne Whistle | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | True Bet | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cause for Surprise | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Kantune | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Captain Moss | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Race Me Home (IRE) | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12A | 12 | Mambo At the Gym | 0.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rappel | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucullan | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Strong Yen | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | J. S. Choice | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dogtown | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Portando | 5.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Black Tide | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Irish Prayer | 0.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Planet Trailblazer (BRZ) | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Holding Aces | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Heated Verdict | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Real Creel | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Undercutter | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Tu Exageres | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Warm Springs | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 1 | Bookew Bucks | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | The Walk | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pioneer Spirit | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 2 | Speedy Slew | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | New York’s Finest | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Psychic Energy | 4.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Saratoga Charlie | 3.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Independent Worker | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.