July 30, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Poker Player | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spectacular Act | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | M J Seeker | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Walk Tiz Way | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Samurai | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Under the Table | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tannah’blu | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Steel Strike | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mallory’s Channel | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diastole | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bibi’s Baby | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Logi | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Glamala | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cooper’s Keeper | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | My Fouroone Kplan | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Baltic Star | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chosen Facts | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Descarado | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Tanks | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Livingston | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dandy Gal | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Recognition | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Conquest Tiz One | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Three Cat Rules | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jo Jo’s Wine | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aiken to Be | 2.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Emily’s Entourage | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ferlin Husky | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Greeley’s Special | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bonita’s Gift | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mister McGehee | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | One Sock Mauk | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Heza Great Friend | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Noble Leader | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Papa Rizzo | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Donivan My Boy | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Dragon | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Just Blaze | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jimmy D | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Musket Hunter | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Captivating Moon | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Go Son Go | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Next Monday | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Espo | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Andreas | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hide the Evidence | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Stefan O’Eishen | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 7 | Spin Hard | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Da Goose | 50.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Three Pillars | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Devil Hunt | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Greyt Oak | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ready to Fight | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hawk Is Ready | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wayne’s Ready | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Eagle Spirit | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Stein | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Amaroq | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Holy Brass | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Max Faktor | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chas Tom | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Summer Castle | 3.50 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Guard Your Grill | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Homer | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.