July 28, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | My Mertie | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Canette | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Church Road | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Straight Up Smarty | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Meadow Mystique | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Romancin N Dancin | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Grey Mask | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Richiesinthehouse | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Distracted | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Unbridled Ruler | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Richiesgotswagger | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Shankly Heights | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Welovecandy | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | O No Not U Again | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spittintumbleweeds | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Tail Gunner Carl | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sky Wonder | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Greenhorn | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | W W Distinction | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mongolian Holiday | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Atlantic Blue | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mayor Byrne Rocks | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | She’s Got the Mojo | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Octacato | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fifth and Market | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Call Me Courageous | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Atlantic Gulch | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Neuqua | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bizzee Mischief | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | B N a Native Girl | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lozen | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moon Over Cabo | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Partay | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Away to Town | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Voluptuous | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brisson | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | St. Louis City | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awalkinthemoonlite | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Short and Sassy | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sing One Song | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Commercial Appeal | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Edging | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nyoman | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Profluent | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gorgeous George | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Four Left Feet | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Oh Oz | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Only Liquor | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mean Intentions | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Alpha Boy | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | A J’s Posse | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Ragu | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sacred Legacy | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rich Tradition | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | All Strikes | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Commander’s Castle | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Suspenders | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Milliner | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blame It On Luck | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.