July 23, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lakota Rose | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blanco Brush | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thirsty Girl | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reminisce | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I Hope Its Chloe | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gotta Go Back | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Senor Blanco | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gentleman Richie | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Changn Fivehundred | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Taco Grande | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Two Nephews | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lovedtalkintoeddi | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heza Tinker | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tinderella | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nook | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Khatun | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Milliondollarhiway | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dr Winn Kyi | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | American Merlot | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Drip Brew | 1.40 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Don’t Tell Mom | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Danceinthewind | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Waddle | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hal’s Mischief | 1.60 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Only Praise Me | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Midnite in Miami | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Flin Flon | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chlobee | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mistletoe Miss | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Konza Khrome | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Kitty | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mysouthernsunshine | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | Hey Pretty Boy | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mendota | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Revolt | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 4 | Chas the Man | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Side Pocket | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dancing Rock | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 1 | Wildwood Nafir | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Silly Factor | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Now That’s a Benny | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lu Sea | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Darling Sofia | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | R U Forreal | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Lookforasmile | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wind Cheater | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.