Arlington Horse Racing Picks for Friday, July 21, 2017

July 21, 2017 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Cheroben 30.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Mr Leadbox 12.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Paddybdancing 4.00 3 6-1
1 1 Disorderly Conduct 0.80 3.3 6-1
5 5 Bull Market Richie 4.50 4.8 9-1
2 2 Fort Aiken 3.50 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Back Page Star 4.00 1.3 2-1 Scr
7 7 Socialized 8.00 2.6 5-1 Scr
2 2 Smiling Gambler 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Bella Be Proud 12.00 3.8 7-1 Scr
1 1 Daddy’s Boo 0.60 4 8-1
5 4 Zeta Zody 8.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Yes Mongolia 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Turbulent War 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Lights On Brite 20.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Costly King 1.40 2.5 5-1
6 6 Ghost to Ghost 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Roarin Missile 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Francois 2.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 5 Cortege 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 2 Sea Rover 2.50 1.8 3-1
7 6 Supermans Cape 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Jax Heritage 4.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Mas Mischief 3.00 5 9-1 Scr
4 3 Maxus 15.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Powerstretcher 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 6 Hey Pretty Boy 2.50 1.9 4-1 Scr
8 5 Checkmate Charlie 12.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Pale Hose 10.00 3.3 6-1
7 4 Specialeyes 3.00 4.3 8-1
5 3 Strike Quiet 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 2 Bajan Rhythm 3.50 5.3 10-1
2 2 Bourbon Candy 4.00 6.3 12-1 Scr
3 3 Cashel Rock 8.00 7.3 14-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 6 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 6 Spittintumbleweeds 12.00 2 4-1
8 7 Assaulter 0.20 2.5 5-1
1 1 Eric’s Little Guy 12.00 3 6-1
6 5 J K’s Dream 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 3 Bartbaalu 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 4 Glitter Road 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Alwaysmypleasure 12.00 7 13-1 Scr
2 2 Valovich 15.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 5 Summer Sweet 2.50 1.3 2-1
4 3 Mundy Road 2.00 2.5 5-1
6 4 Our Maria Celeste 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Crafty’s Way 4.00 3.8 7-1
2 1 Evasive Storm 10.00 5 9-1
5 5 Altered Mind 12.00 6.3 12-1 Scr
8 6 Steel Strike 12.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Mallory’s Channel 15.00 8 15-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 2 Flashdance Road 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 One Sock Mauk 10.00 2.4 5-1 Scr
4 3 Boom Box 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Strict Observance 10.00 4 8-1 Scr
8 8 Chicory Blue 6.00 4.5 9-1 Scr
7 7 Force It 6.00 5.8 11-1 Scr
1 1 Gray Mensch 8.00 6.8 13-1
5 4 Electrifying 4.00 7.3 14-1
9 5 Bootleggin 12.00 8.3 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.