Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 30, 2017

June 30, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Hey Mike 2.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 Parlor 2.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Chief Know It All 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Warrior’s Club 5.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Royal by Nature (IRE) 4.50 4.5 9-1
4 4 All Right 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 6 Flashy Jewel 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Racer 8.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Far Right 2.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Big Squeeze 5.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Egyptian 3.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Carve 4.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 5 Hot Yankee 4.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Run Away’s Sis 5.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Miss Coco 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Juliet Foxtrot 15.00 4.3 8-1 Scr
2 2 Wilhelmina 30.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Crack Your Whip 4.50 6.3 12-1
9 8 Gingermore 10.00 6.3 12-1
8 7 Delusional K K 3.50 7 13-1
3 3 Slam Chowder 5.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 7 Pauline Revere 1.80 1 2-1
7 6 Tiz My Lady 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Dona Spey 4.00 3.5 7-1 Scr
5 4 Bodie’s Valentine 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 3 Etsu 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 1 Memories of Mom 8.00 6 11-1
3 2 Fetch’s Mon 20.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Miss Lyricist 20.00 7.8 15-1 Scr
6 5 Rollover Risk 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 9 Blabimir 4.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 High Multiple 10.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Dattts Our Guy 8.00 4 8-1
12 12 Caniform 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Uno Mas Brandy 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Altito 10.00 6 11-1
11 11 Joey B 10.00 7 13-1
8 8 Spicoli 12.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Bud’s Mr. B 10.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Fat Daddy 5.00 9.8 18-1
3 3 Shoe Money 20.00 10.5 20-1
4 4 Start a War 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Bashford Manor S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Mo Diddley 2.50 2.3 4-1 Scr
4 3 Fig Jelly 12.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Hardworkcleanlivin 6.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Ten City 2.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Copper Bullet 1.60 4 8-1
1 1 I’m Corfu 12.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
11 10 Iconic 3.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Sharm El Sheikh 10.00 4 8-1
5 4 Huntin Buddy 20.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Hour City 12.00 5 9-1
12 12 Mr Dewey 10.00 5.5 10-1 Scr
4 3 Makeamericagreat 6.00 6 11-1
17 17 Fireball Shot 3.00 6.5 12-1 Scr
15 15 American Sea 20.00 8.5 16-1 Scr
7 6 Kitten Silver 6.00 8.8 17-1
6 5 Too Tall Arkansas 30.00 10.8 20-1
8 7 Conquest Gladiator 20.00 11.3 21-1
18 18 Tapsolute 3.00 11.3 21-1 Scr
3 3 Kitten’s Solution 10.00 11.3 21-1 Scr
10 9 Sakonnet 3.50 12.3 23-1
16 16 Harangue 30.00 14 26-1 Scr
9 8 Harlan Strong (ARG) 10.00 14 26-1
14 14 Mascarpone 20.00 16.3 31-1 Scr
13 11 Lo’s Journey 50.00 18 34-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Debutante S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 2 Rockin Royalty 20.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Sunny Skies 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Red Dread 30.00 4.5 9-1
11 10 Lady O’Toole 4.50 4.8 9-1
10 10 Therighttobeararms 30.00 5.8 11-1 Scr
7 7 Patrona Margarita 8.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 She’s a Julie 4.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Genuwine 50.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Upset Brewing 20.00 8.3 16-1
9 9 Amberspatriot 3.50 9.3 17-1
12 11 Chelada 30.00 10 19-1
5 5 Caroline the Great 20.00 10 19-1
13 12 Waki Patriot 5.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 7 Drop Dead Red 2.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Ervsayslethergo 12.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Katalust 12.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Darion’s Dream 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Anythingyoucando 4.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Annathela 2.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Pageant Material 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Toasted 8.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Kelly’s Landing Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 2 The Player 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 4 Recount 5.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Woodland Walk 30.00 3.5 7-1 Scr
4 3 Limousine Liberal 1.80 4 8-1
14 10 Wyeth 10.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Schivarelli 12.00 7 13-1 Scr
11 8 The Truth Or Else 6.00 7.5 14-1
8 7 Vaporman 30.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Wabel 15.00 8 15-1
7 6 Fish Trappe Road 20.00 9.8 18-1
13 13 Solitary Ranger 50.00 11.8 22-1 Scr
12 9 Bayerd 12.00 12 23-1
6 5 Easy to Say 30.00 12 23-1
2 2 Hebbronville 20.00 12.3 23-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 7 His Royal Majesty 15.00 3.5 7-1
11 10 Vilonia Strong 20.00 3.8 7-1
9 8 Cape Angel 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Flatter the Queen 20.00 5 9-1
8 8 Out of the Office 15.00 6 11-1 Scr
12 11 Cadillac Red 6.00 7 13-1
6 6 Malibu At Midnight 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Victor Again 10.00 8 15-1
5 5 Laughing Levi 30.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Unstabled 15.00 9.3 17-1 Scr
10 9 Off Road 2.00 9.3 17-1
3 3 Hardly a Secret 12.00 9.8 18-1
4 4 Hardly Seen Slim 4.00 10.3 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.