Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 22, 2017

June 22, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Rhythm Park 2.00 1.3 2-1
5 5 Rockstar Jam 12.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Manhattan Mischief 0.80 3.3 6-1
3 3 Bad Student 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Fourth of July 4.50 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Snack Shack 3.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Lady Cleopatra 5.00 3 6-1
2 1 Blackberry Farm 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Awesometastic 3.00 3.8 7-1
1A 7 Naughty Little Nun 2.50 4.3 8-1
1 2 Blaze Star 2.50 4.8 9-1
6 6 Stay Spicy 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
2 1 Wyatt’s Town 3.00 1.3 2-1
3 2 Grandpa Knows Best 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Baffin 2.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 No Limit 6.00 4 8-1
5 5 Call a Cop 8.00 5 9-1
1A 9 Big Iron 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Mauk’s Tuff 12.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Fred’stwirlincandy 15.00 7.8 15-1
1 3 Undercover Lover 12.00 8.5 16-1
9 10 Disco Dave 15.00 9.8 18-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 2 Indy Hill 1.60 2 4-1 Scr
7 6 Whiskey Tree 15.00 2.8 5-1
1A 6 Iron Mane 1.60 3.3 6-1 Scr
4 3 Noshackleshere 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Angelo’s Ashes 2.50 5.3 10-1
2 1 Johnny Obvious 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 2 Jive Daddy 12.00 6.8 13-1
5 4 Mistake Present 2.50 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Arodg 3.00 1.3 2-1
10 10 How’s My Bud 8.00 3.5 7-1 Scr
4 4 Tempestuous Angel 15.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Drago’s Pearl 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Scamp 10.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Dreammeister 4.50 6 11-1
8 8 Doctor Lee 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Swordfish 2.50 7 13-1
7 7 Prevailing Bets 10.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Ludlum 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 8 Laney 2.50 1.8 3-1
10 11 Dial Me 20.00 3.3 6-1 Scr
4 3 Funny Holiday 8.00 3.5 7-1
1A 8 Noelle’s Mischief 3.00 4 8-1 Scr
6 5 Golden Domer 3.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Boudicea’s Revenge 50.00 7.3 14-1
5 4 Star Quest 15.00 7.5 14-1
2 1 Minnie Blip 10.00 7.8 15-1
1 7 Marcy Darcy 3.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Kaylen’s Revenge 12.00 8.8 17-1
3 2 Champagne Problems 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 10 Doxology 3.50 1.5 3-1
1A 9 Sentence 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Naylor 8.00 4 8-1
2 1 Dream Dance 5.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Adore 5.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Classic Bo 12.00 6 11-1
1 2 Care 3.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Fuhriously Kissed 8.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Starlight Express 10.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Sweet N Wicked 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 High Street 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Lucky Number One’s 4.00 2 4-1
10 10 Very Elegant 4.50 3.3 6-1 Scr
2 2 Brekfastatturfanys 8.00 5 9-1
8 8 Cape Dancer 20.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Superior Eye Q 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Big Sigh 8.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Imallaboutthatbass 15.00 8 15-1
5 5 Forty Christina 4.00 8.3 16-1
9 9 Wonderful Kiss 30.00 9.3 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.