Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 16, 2017

June 16, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 6 Ritzy Lass 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Kentucky Dancer 2.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Bottle Walk 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Hold Me Tight 15.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Big Red Seven 5.00 5 9-1
2 2 Dustem Carolina 4.00 6 11-1
7 7 Rose to Glory 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Rilla 5.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Cheyenne Blues 1.60 1.8 3-1
2 2 Disones Pretty 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Gracequinnannamady 4.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Miss Chatty Cat 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Eufaula 5.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Equulei 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 6 Lady O’Toole 4.00 1.5 3-1
5 4 Reality Queen 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 3 Mileva 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Sunny’s Funny 1.80 4 8-1
3 2 Southern Moon 4.00 4 8-1
1 7 Hot N Sweet 8.00 6 11-1
1A 8 Kieran Street 8.00 7.3 14-1 Scr
6 5 Lawless 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 8 United Stand 6.00 2.5 5-1
13 13 Bourbon Country 6.00 3.8 7-1 Scr
6 6 Tapizone 12.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Santa Americana 5.00 4 8-1
2 2 Tipsy Kitten 3.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Encrypt 2.50 7 13-1
5 5 American Ride 20.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Jumpin Jack Cash 20.00 8.3 16-1 Scr
3 3 Hardly Seen Slim 5.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Latimer 15.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Workingforaliving 12.00 10.3 19-1
12 12 Mascarpone 5.00 10.5 20-1 Scr
10 10 Mark for Good 15.00 11.5 22-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 4 Ironclad 2.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Epic Journey 10.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Handiwork 4.00 3.3 6-1 Scr
6 5 Raagheb 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Rich Daddy 2.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Albano 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 3 Oathkeeper 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Go Navy Go 5.00 2.5 5-1 Scr
9 7 Hollywood Critic 4.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Knights Key 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Perfect Execution 10.00 5.8 11-1
8 6 Mister Maestro 5.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Elitch 10.00 6.8 13-1 Scr
6 5 Attraction 6.00 6.8 13-1
11 9 I’m Ready to Roll 15.00 9.8 18-1
2 2 Halloween Horror 12.00 10 19-1
3 3 Ready Strike 6.00 10.8 20-1 Scr
10 8 Sabbatarian 15.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Miss Helen 3.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Model by Artie 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Fancy Pinstripes 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Right On By 2.50 4 8-1
6 6 Benchmark Babe 10.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Parking Ticket 3.50 5.3 10-1
5 5 In Focus 8.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
9 8 Shadow Rock 3.50 2.3 4-1
8 7 Maniacal 2.50 2.5 5-1
10 9 Alaskan Prince 12.00 3 6-1
2 2 Mesoma 8.00 5.5 10-1 Scr
3 2 Wagon Boss 12.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Manhattan Mischief 2.50 6.5 12-1 Scr
4 3 Mongol Bull 8.00 6.8 13-1
6 5 Element 12.00 7 13-1
1 1 Control Stake 8.00 8 15-1
7 6 Nun the Less 8.00 8.5 16-1
5 4 While Ye May 10.00 10.3 19-1
11 11 Nifty Fifty 30.00 12 23-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
8 7 Spicoli 2.50 2.5 5-1
9 8 Buddy Bud 30.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Red Blue and True 30.00 4.5 9-1
5 4 Oriental Crown 6.00 4.5 9-1
10 9 Coach Moore 15.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Conquest Goinggone 3.00 5.8 11-1
6 5 Start a War 10.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 P J’s Awesome 10.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Power Plant 10.00 8.3 16-1 Scr
7 6 Empire Taker 10.00 9.3 17-1
11 10 Slope 12.00 9.5 18-1
12 11 Castlefinn 15.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.