HBO’s Saturday night showcase of Terence Crawford and Felix Diaz offers boxing fans an opportunity to watch the junior welterweight/super lightweight star take on a skilled contender and an Olympic gold medalist with a large upside but limited history in achieving his potential.
Form: Crawford
The unified champ has been in immaculate form his last 3 fights. His bout with Hank Lundy was a short yet entertaining and action packed 5 rounder. Lundy won round 1 with some early power shots pushing Crawford to switch to southpaw right away. Crawford slowly took over from there and by round 4 was controlling the fight with his crisp jabs, on point footwork, and smothering punch load. Lundy was still game but the fight was shifting. Midway through the 5th Crawford staggered Lundy with a strong left, pressuring him on the ropes with body shots, and downed him with a right straight. Lundy got up but was ended within seconds as Crawford turned up the heat.
Crawford’s fight with Victor Postol was a longer affair and didn’t end with a spectacular knock out but it served to highlight the champ’s skills better than his bout with Hank Lundy. Postol seemed to win the first 3 rounds but, as we’ve come to expect, Crawford was actually spending this time sizing up and developing an on the spot gameplan. The next 9 rounds were a demoralizing demolition in which Crawford’s movement and punch timing completely eroded Postov’s chances of victory. They were punctuated by a blow out 5th round with Crawford scoring two knockdowns. From that point forward Crawford circled and counter punched Postov into the loser’s abyss. Postov made things a little interesting with an active 11th and 12th round but the verdict was long decided.
The Omaha homecoming bout against John Molina Jr. last December showed Crawford at his best. His third fight of 2016 was the cornerstone of a fantastic year. There was no 3 round lull in which Crawford appeared to give away some rounds while figuring out his opponent. Molina charged in with reckless abandon and Crawford rewarded him with an 8 round long diet of unchecked power punches. As the fight went on it was hard not to be more concerned about the damage Molina was taking than with the stellar performance Crawford was putting on but the 8th round stoppage punctuated Crawford’s flawless fight.
Form: Diaz
Diaz’s only loss was a controversial majority decision defeat in Fairfax, VA against the tested veteran Lamont Peterson. The fight was a solid back and forth PBC co-main event in December of 2015. The television announcers felt Diaz won the fight 7 rounds to 5, I had the bout at a draw at 114-114 and so did one of the judges. The other two inexplicably ruled in Lamont’s favor 117-111 and 116-112. In his better rounds Diaz was very active on his feet, utilized strong counter punches, and pressured Lamont with heavy volume. In his poorer rounds he seemed to either stand still and lose close infighting exchanges or get trapped by a moving Lamont. I felt that Diaz’s late round constant pursuit of Lamont combined with a clear punches landed advantage gave him the win. The judges disagreed. Such is boxing.
In his fight with Sammy Vasquez Diaz showcased some of his Olympic pedigree. Vasquez was the more active fighter in the very beginning but Diaz, much like Crawford, soon took over with his movement and counter-punching. A knockout would have rubber stamped a solid performance but the bout was only 10 rounds and despite moments of dominance Diaz seemed unable to finish the deal.
Diaz’s last fight, which also took place on December 16th of last year, was in his home country of the Dominican Republic against a last minute replacement Levis Morales. The fight was of such little entertainment value that I am absolutely unable to find a video of it. From all reports Diaz controlled the fight and finished Morales off with a TKO in the 7th round.
Crawford vs Diaz
There is little to suggest that Diaz will finally be the super lightweight to challenge Crawford’s unquestioned supremacy in the division. The Dominican gold medalist moves well, is sharp on the counter, and has perfect conditioning. Crawford, however, has all of these same qualities in a superior fashion. Diaz’s defense is lacking in close quarters and he doesn’t have the power to knockout the crafty Omaha native. That being said, the fight should offer boxing fans more action and back and forth punching than Crawford’s last three opponents so long as Diaz doesn’t get himself knocked out early. The big question of the night will be if Diaz can adapt once Crawford figures him out.
Prediction: Crawford finishes Diaz before the 11th. As the referee ended Hank Lundy’s short and painful night in the 5th round of his bout against Crawford last February, HBO boxing’s Jim Lampley exclaimed, “And just like that class will tell!”. I anticipate we’ll have a similar moment Saturday night.