May 19, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ultra Arumba (BRZ) | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pinking of You | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I Am Miss Brown | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cheyenne Blues | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Secret Trick | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucy’s Revenge | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Go Noni Go | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Contrarian | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beautiful Street | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Touchdown Trojans | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reality Queen | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vida Leva Eu | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Having a Tizzy | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cinema Doll | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Coach’s Dream | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | After the Goldrush | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Out of the Office | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cowboy Quinn | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Colonel’s Ina Rush | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Yates Runingwild | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mighty Mad | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Buzzkillington | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Knight’s Dream (IRE) | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Six Schillings | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Space Mountain | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Real Creel | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hardly Home | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Marine Pilot | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chantmeupbaby | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | All Up in Lights | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Houdini’s Ekati | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | High Street | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Kay | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jemrose | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Boomtiderock | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Prize | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Maleficent Queen | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kitty Express | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Dorodansa | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Diamonds for Leah | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Recognition | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Cinder | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Scatmeifucan | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sealed With a Kiss | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Avisionofchocolate | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heir Apparent | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Drossie | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Leeloo’s Journey | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Double First | 4.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Mamacita | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Joey B | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dark Arden | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cannington | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Aztec Sense | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight’s Fantasy | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shoe Money | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Strong Breeze | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Conquest Hiosilver | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Baseballnbourbon | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Confederate Rags | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Shadow Rock | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Maniacal | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Alaskan Prince | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 15 | Jasizzle | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Vici | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Control Stake | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Forgive | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cashel Rock | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Front Pocket Money | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Above the Bar | 8.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Fourinthemorning | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 14 | Cat Tree | 10.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Nun the Less | 5.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dingdingdingding | 20.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 1 | 13 | While Ye May | 10.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Enchanted Rambam | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Patriotic American | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Loyalist | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Stan’s Old Habits | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Durrett Lane | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Backlash | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | She Read My Texts | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mister Maestro | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Henderson Country | 4.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Utmost Intensity | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | A Bit Quick | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Out of the Trappe | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.