May 11, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | The Hans Sum One | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Conquest Skedaddle | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Live Round | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hooroo | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Proud to Live Free | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Little Bit Irish | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arch Flash | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Divorce | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Merle | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Anna Kate | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Therighttobeararms | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rose Candy | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rhonda’s Girl | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shulamite Lady | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bonnie Bonnet | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lullingstone | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Color Me Blush | 0.00 | 0 | 0-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Will Gracie Shine | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Yooou Den | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cheyenne Blues | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Little Ariel | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Atruevision | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Eufaula | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Martha Rose | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vanilla Score | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Salute the Warrior | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Soul Strategy | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady America | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quiet Score | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Haute Prospect | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Princess Ember | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Budget Cut | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | North of Eden | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Chill Phil | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Teenertown Prince | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Boy Lane | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Odyssey | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dublinyourmoney | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Negu | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nseventeen | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Guilty Streak | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Reydell | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Awesome Mil | 0.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Arsenalofdemocracy | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ship Disturber | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | More Than Shirl | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jive Daddy | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Driven by Desire | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Goods Gone West | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Owl Creek | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Green Gold | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Highroller Dave | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Iron Mane | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Decent | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wagon Boss | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pontifical | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hold Me Black | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oso Ready | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kidnap | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | El Comander | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bootleggin | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Smart Question | 0.00 | 0.8 | 1-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Benediction | 0.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Coach Moore | 0.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Start a War | 0.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cap’s Tale | 0.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Proper Decorum | 0.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Blue and True | 0.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | The Last Prophet | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Promise Me Freedom | 0.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Commission | 0.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Empire Taker | 0.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sharp Game | 0.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.