May 5, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Loom | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Song of Spring | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Naylor | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | C Islandsurprise | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Street Biz | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pageant Material | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bellatori | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tiger Eyes | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Bonnie | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Belletta | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz My Lady | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Madison Kat | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gulf Front | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancing All Night | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Makealittlelove | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Northwest Bourbon | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Stonetacular | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Sweet Stella | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Champagne Problems | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Elate | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Corporate Queen | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Daria’s Angel | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crimson Frost | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Babybluesbdancing | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Drinks On Broadway | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 12 | Hone In | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Classic Bo | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Sweet Tapper | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Twirl Girl | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | B Rockett | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sassy Little Lila | 1.40 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Princess Princess | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Maquette | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Shes a True Beauty | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Flying Tipat | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Emerald Pond | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pour Girl | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – La Troienne S. Presented By Spirited Funds
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Finest City | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Big World | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paid Up Subscriber | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Impasse | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eskenformoney | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Factory of Faith | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Romantic Vision | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Streamline | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Go Maggie Go | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Alysheba S. Presented By Big Fish Casino
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | American Freedom | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Breaking Lucky | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Noble Bird | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Huerfano | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bird Song | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flashy Jewel | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | December Seven | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Fish Trappe Road | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | International Star | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Honorable Duty | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Behesht (FR) | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Twinspires.com
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Green Mask | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Latent Revenge | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Holding Gold | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Why Two | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maniacal | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | Pure Sensation | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Tell All You Know | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Partly Mocha | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Derek’s Smile | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Black Bear | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Wilbo | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Platinum Prince | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Expected Ruler | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Kentucky Trailer
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Let It Ride Mom | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pretty City Dancer | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Florida Fabulous | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | I’mluckysgirl | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Cajun Delta Dawn | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Benner Island | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Union Strike | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Laney | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lovely Bernadette | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ghalia | 3.50 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gris Gris | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | What What What | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Mischief | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | China Grove | 30.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tom’s d’Etat | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Taketothestreets | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vaporman | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | River Echo (GB) | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Capital Letters | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Gangster | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 11 | Goats Town | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Langdarma | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | General Downs | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Homespun Hero | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Decorated Soldier | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Task Force Glory | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Naval Gazer | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pinson | 12.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Rich Daddy | 20.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Edgewood S. Presented By Forcht Bank
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | Dream Dancing | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stallion Heiress | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Storm the Hill | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | La Coronel | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 13 | You Missed It | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Youngest Daughter | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | India Mantuana | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Journey Home | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Purely a Dream | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Proctor’s Ledge | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Emphatically | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sweeping Paddy | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bernadiva | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Longines Kentucky Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Abel Tasman | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Miss Sky Warrior | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Farrell | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Salty | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tequilita | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Summer Luck | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Paradise Woods | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Daddys Lil Darling | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sailor’s Valentine | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lockdown | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mopotism | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jordan’s Henny | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ever So Clever | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vexatious | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wicked Lick | 30.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ministry | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jenna J | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Naples Princess | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Noelle’s Mischief | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Dial Me | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | American Cleopatra | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fashion Runaway | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Minnie Blip | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Friend of Liberty | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ashleys Magens Bay | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Kitten’s Gold | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Hour City | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Saburo | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Cape Angel | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Big Exchange | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Long Night | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 9 | Distorted Ransom | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Path Less Traveled | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Neon Gator | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Rollin Smoke | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | McCormick | 3.50 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pirate Sailor | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tipsy Kitten | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lo’s Journey | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.