May 4, 2017 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Perina’s Pride | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Midnight Candy | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Northern Screamer | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lil Renegade | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kate Is a Ten | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spa Town Parade | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Playthatfunnymusic | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 5 | Set the Trappe | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Summer Bourbon | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 6 | Abdaar | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Kohlhase | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Too Wild to Repent | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sammy Wonder Stone | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Tree Shaker | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bear Clause | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Conquest Typhoon | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Weekend Express | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jay’s Way | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Gold Shield | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Night Prowler | 0.40 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Poshsky | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Shalako | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Miss Munnings | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Assertive | 1.40 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Love for Scarlett | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brooklyn Gerty | 2.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Liam’s World | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Inflexibility | 1.20 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boule | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 13 | Presumptuous | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 6 | Dovecote | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Aoife | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Bay City Blues | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maddy’s Way | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Juliastown | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Roman Revival | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bunyaan | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Facade | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dogtown | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hammerin Aamer | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Going Strong | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sandy Strikes | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Questeq | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Americasprincess | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | My Plain Jane | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Driven by Speed | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Offlee Good | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hope’s Roar | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Galway Girl | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Proud Lily | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Tough Old Bird | 3.50 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Lady’s First | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Queen Katherina | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Dreamy Margarita | 6.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Miss New Hampshire | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Wish Upon | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Glory to Kitten | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Taralena | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flattermefabulous | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Al Hayyah (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Radiantly (GB) | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pussy Willow | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Indygita | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Quiet Prediction | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Drover Crazy | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Gomper | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | West Hills Giant | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Small Bear | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gypsum Johnny | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paid Admission | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Paz the Wine | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Down Royal | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Laurel Lane | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Sapporo | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Edith Court | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Jacqueline D | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Malibu Squeeze | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Jazzy Juder | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sneaky Fudge Face | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Samodiva | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pure Gemmz | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Anna Liffey | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Freckle de Freck | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Distinctive Dyna | 50.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.