April 28, 2017 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Read My Lips | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Clear N Convincing | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Romanus | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Thebigfundamental | 1.20 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ashby’s Rebel Yell | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spring On Curlin | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Myakka River | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fleeting Gold | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Saratoga Mischief | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Set the Trappe | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tipit | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mark Twain | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tottie Royer | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gun for Hire | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Open Bar | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Honorable Jonas | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Samurai Warrior | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tale of Silence | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jamminwithbrandon | 20.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hemsworth | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mineralogy | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Dougie Fresh | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Trevino | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bob | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Morning Daddy | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 12 | Royal Ridge | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dublin Leprechaun | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wondermeister | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crawfish Shorts | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Fleet Admiral | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Til We Meet Again | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Circumnavigate | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Hangry | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Revive and Resurge | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Squeakers Shadow | 6.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kierland | 10.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Heat Check | 20.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Oh So Sinister | 20.00 | 15 | 28-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Marriage Fever | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kick Off | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mills | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Match Up | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Praetereo | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Old Upstart | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Souper Knight | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fabulous Lady | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Epping Forest | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ribbonite | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bahnahno | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | North Eight Street | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Laura’s Patriot | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kiss the Flag | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Sing for Beauty | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Shimmering Moon | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Somerset Sandy | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fire Key | 5.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Catcher in the Sky | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Treatherlikestar | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Askfor Forgiveness | 12.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Bloom | 12.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | She’s So Fine | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | One Last Shot | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Elegant Supermodel (GER) | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Take These Chains (IRE) | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | King’s Ghost | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 7 | Thundering Sky | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Free N Clear | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Cover Song | 4.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Width | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Jet Majesty | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Call Her Karma | 3.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Jc’s Shooting Star | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Rumble Doll | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Milaya | 20.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Affirmed Success S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | Weekend Hideaway | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sudden Surprise | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Candid Desire | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rectify | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Riff Raff | 50.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | West Hills Giant | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Samadi Sky | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eye Luv Lulu | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Final Chapter | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marriedtothemusic | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Awesome Gent | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Celtic Chaos | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ostrolenka | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Summer Sweet | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | First Appeal | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Grassarla | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Leah’s Dream | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Silly Sister | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Milky Whey Gal | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spring Folly | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frost Wise | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Amber Dancer | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Sandy Belle | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Carry Your Heels | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dream a Little | 3.50 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hollywood Cat | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiffanys Freud | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Reconsider It | 30.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Anna Liffey | 30.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.