Raise your hand if you thought the Minnesota Twins were going to be one of the best teams in the American League after one week of the regular season.
It’s okay if nobody raised it. Let’s face it: nobody expected the Twins to be THIS good early on. Especially when you consider they had the worst record in the majors in 2016. Sure, they have some talented players but c’mon. They have looked like a title contender so far, and fans are already putting heavy expectations on them.
Through the first eight games of the season, the Twins have a 5-3 record that ranks them second in the AL Central. And while the small sample size applies here, they would clinch a Wild Card berth if the season ended today. That’s a big jump in terms of succcess, as Minnesota only played to a 59-103 record in 2016.
Minnesota, however, needs to calm down a bit. The Twins are not making the playoffs. They are not likely to maintain their hot streak, either. If anything, they will even struggle finish the season over .500. This team has too many holes to be considered competitive on the long run.
Let’s start with the pitching. Ervin Santana has a 2-0 record and an 0.69 ERA in two starts. And while he’s the ace on the staff, he isn’t that good. After all, we’re talking about a 34-year-old pitcher who hasn’t had an ERA below 3.00 in his career. He will maintain his place as the best pitcher on the roster, but he’s not going to pitch like he did over his first two starts.
There’s more, though. Hector Santiago sports a 2.38 ERA in two starts, Phil Hughes has a 1.50 ERA after his first start, and Brandon Kintzler already has three saves in four chances. Sustainable? I don’t think so.
Hitting-wise, the Twins have four regulars hitting over .275. Miguel Sano has two homers and a 1.110 OPS. And two other players – Jason Castro and Chris Gimenez – have an OPS north of 1.000. That’s not sustainable in the long runs, because neither Castro nor Gimenez are going to hit like this throughout the entire season. Sano is not going to put up MVP-like numbers either. And we haven’t even discussed the struggles of Byron Buxton, a former top prospect who, once again, started the season with a cold bat.
Brian Dozier is the only Twins players who could contend for a Silver Slugger Award, but he’s hitting .219 so far. He’s going to improve, but the rest of the lineup will regress eventually.
So yeah, while the Twins have looked good of late, their current play is not sustainable. It wouldn’t be surprising if they find themselves at the bottom of the AL Central by the end of April.