April 14, 2017 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Luna Rising | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Audrique | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Banty’s Girl | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Decorator Jenn | 0.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Special Risk | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blind Devotion | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Even Bette | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Champagne Ruby | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Renegade | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Luciano | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Persky’s Spirit | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tathqeef | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Winning Road | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Shuffle Up | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Battle Midway | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Direct Message | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Town Fair | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Silly Numbers | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Spa Treatment | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Halcyon | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Madame Ambassador | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pinchbeck | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Louisiana Lady | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Scarlett Jo Hansen | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rubicon | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Emiliana’s Hope | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alley Oop | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Adirondack Dream | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Martino | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Balac | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Blarney Stones | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Legendary Humor | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Circumnavigate | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | The Donald Problem | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Coral Ridge | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | The Brown Bomber | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | T R Royal | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dublin Express | 10.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Oh So Sinister | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Iron Power | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Arcature | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Closing Bell | 1.20 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Docs Legacy (IRE) | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Mark My Style | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Unbridled Ocean | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aire Bueno (CHI) | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Storm Cell | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Andesine | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Mara | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vicki’s Dancer | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | E Warfare | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bee Noteworthy | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Awesome News | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Legally Bay | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tapa Liath | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Nouvelle Vague (IRE) | 0.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Madame Barbarian | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rosa Dorata | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Queen of Spades | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | B Three | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Justenufflaughter | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saratiago | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boss Lady Platinum | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fautive | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.