April 8, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Hunka Burning Love | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Star Empire (GB) | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bitumen | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chief Know It All | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Con Te Partiro | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Improviser | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sentence | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | True Romance | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gift of Sense | 50.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Put Da Blame On Me | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Annathela | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Red Hot Suzy | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Toasted | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Etiquette | 2.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Woodland Walk | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Maniacal | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mayor Mac | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Schivarelli | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Esposito | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Homespun Hero | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Control Stake | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Sunset | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Souper Fly Over | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Trading Cash | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Marshall Plan | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Switzerland | 1.40 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mr Dewey | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | American Sparrow | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Path Less Traveled | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Spectacularxchange | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon Extension | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Giuseppe the Great | 3.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | North Elkhorn | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | To the King | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 6 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Sunshine Day (ARG) | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Adonis Creed | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Big Bend | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dahog | 50.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bird’s Eye View | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Ventry Bay | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Horse Fly | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heaven Is Waiting | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Halloween Horror | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Escondera | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Channel Maker | 3.50 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Untimed Play | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Kayla’s Kitten | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 12 | Tight Rock | 10.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Durango Dan | 15.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Be Counted | 8.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Tizk Tizk | 20.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Commonwealth S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Awesome Slew | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ami’s Flatter | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of S’avall | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Limousine Liberal | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | A. P. Indian | 1.60 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fish Trappe Road | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Redesdale | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yockey’s Warrior | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Riding in the Wind | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Shakertown S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Justin Squared | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Green Mask | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mongolian Saturday | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Holding Gold | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hogy | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Partly Mocha | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Element | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rainbow Heir | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shakhimat | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Madison S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Constellation | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Paid Up Subscriber | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Clothes Fall Off | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mines and Magic | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | High Ridge Road | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ponder Lea | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wheatfield | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paulassilverlining | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kathballu | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Central Bank Ashland S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Summer Luck | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Meanie Irenie | 30.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Daddys Lil Darling | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tapped | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pretty City Dancer | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Someday Soon | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elate | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sailor’s Valentine | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Toyota Blue Grass S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Practical Joke | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | It’s Your Nickel | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Irap | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tapwrit | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Shot | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | McCraken | 1.40 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | J Boys Echo | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lido | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | High Street | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Playa Blanca | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Asticou Trail | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Auntie’s the One | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Red Dane (ITY) | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ice Ice Princess | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Empressof the Nile | 6.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Kupuri | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Mercy Ann | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Boule | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Stealing Holly | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hello Dearie | 12.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Clearly Claire | 8.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Violet Blue | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Kitten’s Slew | 50.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.