April 5, 2017 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dean’s Ticket | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Glare Ice | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Argyle Gal | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Katie Ice | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Meteor | 1.40 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sea Pebble | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Patternrecognition | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | White Flag | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Enasoit | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hello Holiday | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blessed Halo | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hardened | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Javelin | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Always a Suspect | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Have Another | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Belt | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Horoscope | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Jewel Heist | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | No Need to Appeal | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Presumptuous | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Feed Me Carats | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Desirous | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nefer Nefer | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bay City Blues | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Causeway Cutie | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | On the List | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shoppingforsilver | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lady Chocolotta | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Boomerang Becky | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cats Halo | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ice Palace | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | If You Believe | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fly Ash | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Competitiveness | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Apollo Landing | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Killybegs Captain | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mahalo John | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jamie’s Jammin | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Tizno | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Correjon | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mystical Prince (BRZ) | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dark as Midnight | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mascarello | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Union | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hard Hitter | 1.40 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I Win | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Full of Mine | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gun for Hire | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Kathryn the Wise | 0.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Five Star Rampage | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Urbanity | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fire Key | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | North Eight Street | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sing for Beauty | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zealous Scholar | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Cornedbeefncabbage | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Happy Match | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flux Capacitor | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Pontastic | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Sound of the Tap | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Huracan | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 7 | Red Hook Express | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Born to Run | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Joywave | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stay Home | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 6 | Samurai Warrior | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.