When we talk about the St. Louis Cardinals, one tends to think about excellence. Dominance. World Series titles. But not anymore, as they’re no longer the best in the NL, let alone their own Division.
That distinction belongs to the Chicago Cubs. And many fans are wondering whether St. Louis has enough in them to compete with the Cubs for the NL Central crown this season.
The Cards stole Dexter Fowler from the Cubs in the off-season, but it’s unlikely that one man will shift the power balance in the Division. As it stands right now, the Cubs seem the better ballclub. And we are going to compare them, step by step:
First, let’s go with the rotation. The Cardinals have one of the best young pitchers in the game in Carlos Martinez (16-9, 3.04 ERA). The 25-year-old is expected to anchor St. Louis’ rotation, but that might not enough. There’s also Adam Wainwright (13-9, 4.62 ERA) but the veteran is not the pitcher he once was. And they were also expecting huge contributions from top prospect Alex Reyes, but he will miss the entire season due to injury.
Meanwhile, the Cubs had two of the best pitchers in the NL in 2016. Both Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA) and Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13 ERA) finished in the top three of the NL Cy Young voting, and in the case of Hendricks he will only get better. There’s also Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10 ERA) who won the Cy Young in 2015. And John Lackey (11-8, 3.35 ERA) is a proven veteran who can get the job done, at least during the regular season. There’s not a lot of clarity on who will be the fifth starter, but overall the Cubs look better on paper.
When it comes to the bullpen, things are pretty close. Both finished the 2016 season in the Top 15 in terms of ERA, although the Cubs had a slight edge (3.56 to 3.62). As if that wasn’t enough, Chicago led the Majors in BAA with a .210 mark, but the Cardinals were pretty close with a .230 average that ranked fifth in all of baseball. Both bullpen look strong on paper.
The main difference lies in the quality of both lineups. Chicago has the reigning NL MVP in Kris Bryant, but he’s not alone. There’s also Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez and Jason Heyward. Can you imagine a lineup like that? It’s an authentic Murderers’ Row, and it gets even better. With the exception of Zobrist, no player on that list has reached the 30-year-old mark.
On the other hand, the Cardinals have several young players who can make an impact like Aledmys Diaz, Kolten Wong y Randall Grichuk. And they also have established veterans such as Jhonny Peralta, Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina. They’re good, that’s undeniable. But the Cubs are deeper, younger and more talented. So we’ll give this one Chicago as well.
No one can deny what the Cardinals are doing, and they will likely contend for a Wild Card spot in the NL. But they’re just not good enough to battle the Cubs for the NL Central crown. Chicago is just too deep, too talented and too versatile for the Cardinals.