When group C of the UEFA Champions League was finalized, supporters and neutrals alike couldn’t wait for October 19th at Camp Nou and November 1st at the Ethiad. After all the group stage drawing as a whole was fairly dull, but football fans could at least look forward to these two fixtures where the Catalan giants, Barcelona, would square off against the blue side of Manchester.
I grow tired of hearing about “storylines” in sports. Yes, Pep Guardiola has a deep understanding of the culture at Camp Nou, having spent 15 of his last 25 years in Barcelona as a player and coach of the first and second teams. Lionel Messi has actually played more games under Pep than he has under Luis Enrique. Still, Ilkay Gundogan’s assertion that Pep’s past life at the Camp Nou makes him more prepared as the coach of Manchester City against the current version of Barcelona is simply inaccurate.
Guardiola after all has managed against Barcelona in the 2014/2015 Champions League campaign as the coach of a much deeper and more skilled Bayern Munich than his current Manchester City squad. Munich, as they were in all three of the years Pep was manager, were eliminated in the semifinals on aggregate. The Barcelona front line that year contained slightly less of a bite without Luis Suarez (I’ll see myself out). Ilkay and those who find truth in his assertion need to wise up and realize only four players remain from the last Barcelona squad managed by Guardiola.
Pep’s task today is to devise a plan to stymy arguably the best front unit to ever play the game. Neymar, Suarez, and Messi put up bigger offensive numbers over the course of a season than entire teams in La Liga. Few teams in the world, City included, can go punch for punch offensively with Barcelona (shout out to Celta Vigo). While most teams enter the Camp Nou with the intention salvaging a point by packing 10 players into the 18 yard box and taking the few opportunities they’re given, that strategy is too passive for Guardiola.
In order to give his team a chance at three points, Guardiola needs to focus on areas of the field that he can control. Pep has to realize this game will be outside of his comfort zone. His possession based strategy is straightforward; the other team can’t score if they don’t have the ball. City however, will see a lot less of the ball against Barcelona meaning they’ll have to work hard to regain the ball and string passes together when they have it.
Barcelona is prone to conceding goals and if City can reach the final third with organized possession, they’ll be able to find success. The more difficult task for City is throwing a wrench in the Barcelona’s almost mechanical style of football. Barca will likely field Iniesta, Rakitic, and Busquets in the midfield and while this line up is admittedly world class, this midfield should be City’s point of attack.
Neymar, Messi, and Suarez are capable of some absolutely magesterial goals, but they need the ball provided to them to do so. Pep used a 3-4-3 against Everton, perhaps as an experiment to see how it could work against Barcelona. With a 3-4-3 that includes players capable of constant pressure like Fernandihno, Silva, and Gundogan, City would outnumber Barcelona’s 4-3-3 in the midfield, potentially disrupting Barca’s free flowing football.
A congested midfield almost always leads to more turnovers and more turnovers would allow City to have spells of possession. With short spurts of possession, City can put their own offensive pressure on Barcelona while keeping the ball out of their own defensive third. Anything City can do to both, keep the ball away from their own defenders, and/or Ney-Mes-Sua is a positive.
If Pep doesn’t congest the midfield, he’ll like mirror Barcelona’s 4-3-3 formation. In this case City would rely on chances on the counter attack, which is not what they’re built for. While Pep is inheriting a majority of this squad, it’s important he sticks to what he knows. His style was a perfect fit for City because City have the personnel for advanced combination play and slick finishes. City was not meant to outrun squads up and down the pitch or work the long ball for Aguero.
Guardiola’s past as a manager and player is irrelevant to this game. His big game record in recent years is poor for a manager of his quality in part because of questionable squad selections. His selection for this game should be straightforward, but how he fields those players could make all the difference. City started the season blowing out weaker opponents, but failed their most recent test against Tottenham. A match against Barcelona in Camp Nou with a healthy squad will likely be the barometer against which expectations for the season will be made.