Last season the feel good story of the league, Leicester City, went almost wire to wire becoming the least probable champions in the history of professional football. Now the Foxes, like any team that exceeded expectation, face an entirely different challenge; proving themselves to be legitimate competitors in a sport where it’s so difficult to remain consistent.
Leicester’s schedule over the next month and a half is a nightmare- home against Chelsea, away against Manchester United, home against Porto, home against Southampton, away against Chelsea, home against Copenhagen, home against Palace, away against Spurs, away against Copenhagen. Nine season defining games in three separate competitions over the span of 44 days and we’re only a month into the season.
Ranieri is unquestionably a magician, but he’s also a pragmatist. Surely he knows Leicester is not capable of winning the EFL Cup, the EPL, and the UCL. It will be up to him to generate a priority list based on what’s good for the players, the fans, the owners, and the future of the club. For a neutral the question remains. What should be prioritized?
The first game in this unforgiving stretch of fixtures is an EFL cup match at home versus Chelsea. Chelsea is in dire need of a pick-me-up after a loss at home to Liverpool where they simply looked outmatched for much of the game. As with any new manager there are some obvious growing pains with Conte and with no European football this season, I see the EFL cup as a perfect opportunity for Conte to tinker with line-ups that he would use in league fixtures. The EFL cup may be Chelsea’s only chance at silverware. Ranieri should recognize this and give younger or bench players a chance. After all, Leicester stands to gain less financially in the EFL. It’s not a risk worth taking.
The fixtures against United, Southampton, Chelsea, Palace, and Spurs are all league matches. Currently Leicester is sitting on seven points from their first five matches and I believe seven points is a reasonable target for these next five league games. If Leicester can get through these matches with at least fourteen points, their only games against quality opponents in their next nine league fixtures would be at home against Manchester City and Everton. Ranieri should focus on maximizing the number of points Leicester takes from these nine games.
The Foxes do not have any difficult league games back to back in the second half of their season, thus barring any major injuries it’s likely they’ll be able to gain more points after the turn of the year. I stated at the beginning of the season that a return to European football, whether it’s the Champions League or Europa League, is a reasonable goal for Leicester City. If Ranieri can pick up 32 points by New Year’s Day, Leicester will be in good shape.
The main focus for Leicester City this campaign should be staying relevant in the Champions League. You can argue about whether or not the Champions League has become diluted, but the Champions League is still the only format where emerging squads can challenge Europe’s very best. The Foxes were very fortunate with their UCL draw and they cruised 3-0 in their first ever UCL match at Bruges. The home match against Porto and home/away against Copenhagen will be vital not only for Leicester’s UCL knockout stage hopes, but the morale of a team following a Cinderella run.
Without a true European giant in their group, not qualifying for the knockout stages will say more about the consistency of this Leicester squad than if they do. Qualifying for the Champions League is an obvious achievement, but that achievement loses its value if the next level of expectation isn’t met. Just ask Arsene Wenger.
Ranieri likely ran thousands of simulations in his head while enjoying the little vacation professional footballers and managers get these days. It’s hard not to imagine, though, that at some point the thought, “When the hell are we going to be back in the Champions League” must have crossed his mind. Ranieri needs to use this reflection to do everything he can to maximize the probability of winning the Champions League. The odds, after all, are only 50:1.