Indianapolis went all in last year. After reaching the AFC Championship Game in 2014, the Colts brought in veterans Frank Gore and Andre Johnson to bolster the offense. Everyone expected Indy to steamroll the AFC South and be knocking on the door to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately the offensive line struggled, Andrew Luck got hurt, and the Colts limped to an 8-8 finish. Now Luck is healthy, so all is well in Indianapolis, right?
Andrew Luck’s dirty little secret Andrew Luck is a lot of things, but the best quarterback in the NFL he is not. In fact, he’s almost overrated at this point. He turns the ball over entirely too much, his 4.1% interception ratio proves that. Everyone points to the injury, but Luck was terrible last season. He threw seven picks in his first three games (Colts went 1-2) and that was before he was hurt. His completion percentage was 55.29%, worst amongst starting quarterbacks. His QB rating was 74.9, second worst amongst starting quarterbacks. Now it’s not all Luck’s fault. He plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, so he’s always running for his life. Luckily, the Colts had an offseason to fix these issues.
Too bad their GM is a disaster Ryan Grigson is a terrible General Manager. Indianapolis has over 10 million in dad money on their cap this season and they spent all their money in the offseason signing Luck to a massive six year, $140 million contract. Luck counts $18.4 million against the cap this year alone. The lack of flexibility meant only one big ticket signing, which was Patrick Robinson from the Chargers. Robinson is slotted to be the new starting Corner alongside Antonio Cromartie, who was literally signed off the street on Tuesday. Ryan Kelly was drafted in the first round and he will take over at center, but the other two offensive line prospects are still lower on the depth chart.
How much does Frank Gore have left? Gore slogged through his worst full season as a pro in 2015, and there are thoughts that the carries on him are starting to wear him out. He averaged less than 4 yards a carry for the first time in his career, and he was running for his life during most of the season. He also did not have a 100 yard game, and only scored in four contests. He’s still atop the depth chart, though, with only Robert Turbin & Jordan Todman backing him up. The Colts are high on rookie free agent Josh Ferguson, but he’s had nine yards on thirteen carries in the preseason.
Fantasy Focus All of these names are going to cost you too much in your draft, because of their names. TY Hilton is a perfectly acceptable #2 parading as a # 1. Frank Gore is running on empty, and Andrew Luck will be expected to do it all by himself. I don’t think Luck will be as awful as he was last season, but I don’t think he’ll be as good as he was in 2014 either. A 4,000 yard, 30 touchdown season seems like a good place to slot Luck. Those numbers are also going to be put up by Eli Manning, or Phillip Rivers, or Kirk Cousins. So let someone else overpay for Luck.
Prediction This is the make or break season for the Colts. They are still the class of the division, but Houston won it last year, and Jacksonville is about to escape doormat status. This year, though, the Colts will still win the division just by showing up. That will be followed up by a likely first round playoff exit. 10-6