There’s no question the Philadelphia Phillies have been the most surprising team in the National League. Statistical projections and several experts weren’t shy of penciling them as the worst team in baseball, and most outlets agreed they would be lucky to avoid 100 losses in 2016 after losing 89 and 99 games the two prior years.
Yet, here they are. The Phillies are currently second in the NL East with a 24-17 mark, seven games above .500 and only half game behind the Washington Nationals for the division lead. They, too, have a 1,5 game-lead over the New York Mets and a three-game lead over the Miami Marlins in a surprisingly competitive division.
The question is not how they got there. The real question is – can they keep this up?
Philly fans won’t like it, but both collective, individual and advanced stats suggest the team is likely to crash down back to earth sooner than later.
The collective hitting stats haven’t been kind to them, and all signs suggest they’re due for a regression sooner than later. As of May 19th, the Phillies rank 27th in batting average (.235), 28th in on-base percentage (.294), 28th in OPS (.655), 29th in home runs (31) and 26th in walks (106). Certainly not a recipe for success for a ballclub currently playing above .500.
Pitching, on the other hand, has been a whole different story. The rotation headlined by Vince Velasquez and Aaron Nola ranks 11th with a 3.79 ERA, seventh in innings pitched with 366, and 11th in walks with 118. They also lead all of baseball in strikeouts with 374, so their pitchers have power and command at the same time. THAT is, indeed, a recipe for success.
Pitching, however, can’t carry a team for an entire season. At some point the Phillies need to play better on offense, and their players haven’t been up to the task.
Odrubel Herrera has turned heads around with his numbers at the plate (.333 AVG and .443 OBP with a .901 OPS ), but the rest hasn’t picked up the slack. Maikel Franco has been a disappointment leaving his power aside (7 HRs but only a .243 average) and only two regulars are currently batting above the .300-mark in Herrera and Andrés Blanco (.304), and it seems it’s only a matter of time before the results start to align with their offensive numbers.
Until then, all the Phillies fans can do is enjoy. After all, this is the best they’ve looked in a few years. And based on how the roster is constructed, it might take a couple more years to see them battling for the division lead once again.