While many other title races across Europe have been all but settled, one that was seemingly wrapped up is anything but now. Barcelona has seen their lead in La Liga disintegrate over the past month and change. With three games to go just goal difference and a single point separate Barca from both Madrid challengers, Atletico and Real. Each team now has three games to decide their season. Can the Blaugrana hold and make up for a disappointing Champions League exit? Or will either Madrid side make this year a double with both a domestic and Champions League crown?
http://gty.im/523552558
How Barcelona find themselves in this mess in La Liga to begin with is crazy. Luis Enrique’s men held an eight point lead over Atletico Madrid on March 15th. The advantage over Real Madrid was 12 points on the same date. After knocking out Arsenal from the Champions League, it has been all downhill. They blew a two goal lead and threw away two points at Villarreal. They lost El Clasico to a 10 man Real Madrid in a game that they thoroughly, even if unsurprisingly, dominated possession. Although they won their first Champions League leg against their closest pursuers, their return to La Liga was met with a 1-0 loss to Real Sociedad.
It didn’t get any better after Atletico ousted them from the Champions League. Valencia handed them their third straight La Liga loss, something that hadn’t happened since 2003. Those were times though under Louis Van Gaal in which Barcelona didn’t have the glimmering sheen they have after the Pep Guardiola era at the Camp Nou. Barcelona have won their past two games by a combined 14-0, but the damage is already done. Now they must fend off two tremendous challengers over the final month with zero margin for error.
Their final three games are at Real Betis, home to Espanyol, and on the road to Granada. On paper none of those games should scare Barca fans, but if this past month told them anything, it is that hubris could be one’s ultimate downfall. Real Betis has taken points from Real Madrid at home and nearly did the same to Atletico at the Estadio Benito Villamarin. They aren’t to be taken lightly. Espanyol always provides a challenge in the El Derbi Barceloni, and were able to get a draw in the reverse fixture in January. The game with Granada in between may be a slaughter, but teams can also pull off amazing results when they are fighting for survival.
Atletico Madrid is level on points with Barcelona and have been the antithesis of their opponents during this tumultuous month. Before that fateful international break, Atletico were the ones searching for answers. They just skated by PSV in the Champions League on a tense penalty shootout. They returned to La Liga with an embarrassing defeat to relegation battling Sporting Gijon. But since those two games, Atletico has been a force. Their one loss was the aforementioned UCL quarterfinal first leg to Barcelona, but they avenged that quite swimmingly. No points have been dropped by the Rojiblancos in La Liga since as they’ve taken care of business against the teams they are better than.
They’ve won with defense, scoring, and even a bit of skullduggery. They may not have their manager Diego Simeone on the sidelines for the remainder of the year, but Atletico Madrid won’t let that be a distraction. They have three games left as well against Rayo Vallecano at home, away to Levante, and rounding up the season at the Vicente Calderon against Celta Vigo. Rayo’s playing style works best against high tempo, attacking teams as they showed this past week against Real Madrid. Atletico Madrid should grind them to a halt. Levante have nearly resigned themselves to relegation, but have given Atletico problems in the past, including earlier this season. A huge win at home could help them make a daring escape from the drop, and it isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Celta Vigo is their toughest domestic test though. They ousted Atletico from the Copa Del Rey and in that game became the only team this season to put more than two goals in the back of the Atleti net. Celta have had a rough go of it as of late falling out of contention for the final Champions League spot, but they could be spoilers on the season’s final day.
Lest we forget that Atletico Madrid also has Bayern Munich on their dance calendar in the Champions League as well. Atletico hold a 1-0 lead after the first leg, but may have some butterflies in between the Rayo and Levante games as they travel to Munich for the second leg. A potential trip to a UCL final could also further congest their training and playing schedule.
Real Madrid’s rise back to contention has been incredible. Left for dead by most, including myself, in March, Los Blancos have used the El Clasico as a launch pad back into the title race in La Liga. Since dropping the Madrid Derby at the end of February, Real is unbeaten in the league and have been so decisively. Sitting one point back, Real are actually in better shape than Atletico in terms of tie breakers with Barcelona. They have that vital win in their back pocket as well as the potential to catch them in goal difference. They are just one goal behind at the moment while Atletico’s difference is 30 off the pace.
Real Madrid made their own Champions League comeback after going down 2-0 after one leg against Wolfsburg. A hat trick from Cristiano Ronaldo put them through into the semi-finals while they kept winning in the league and Barca kept losing. But CR7 is on the sidelines for now, something that Madrid showed over their past two games could be worrisome.
They had to rally from two goals down against Rayo Vallecano with Gareth Bale picking up the slack. They’ll need more than the Welshman’s brilliance though if they are going to break through against Joe Hart and Manchester City in the Champions League. They’ll also need that firepower in the league over their final three games at Real Sociedad, home to Valencia, and at Deportivo La Coruna. Sociedad have already slayed one giant. They could very well get at least a point at home against another. Valencia have been a new team in La Liga since sacking Gary Neville, and possess the goal scoring firepower to get into a shootout with Real at the Santiago Bernabeu. Deportivo is the wild card in the finale. This could be a 5-0 or 6-0 blowout in favor of the visitors, or a 3-3 goalfest. It all depends which Deportivo shows up that day.
This final three weeks in Spain is going to be bonkers, with no team being afforded mistakes. Add in the Champions League semi-finals for the two Madrid sides, and a potential final against each other, and alert is at code red. I surely will be glued to whatever gamecasts and broadcasts I can get a hold of to witness this thrilling conclusion to the La Liga campaign. I’ll probably have GameView up as well, because you know, I try to sound smart when I talk. Who do you think is taking home the Spanish Primera crown? Leave a comment or let me know on Twitter @TREVORutley.