The starting pitcher market just got ramped up to 11 this week as two gigantic signings came through. Two American League power brokers trying to put disastrous 2015’s behind them ponied up some serious coin for front line starters. The Tigers struck first giving Jordan Zimmermann $110 million over 5 years. Dave Dombrowski one-upped his old stomping ground by splashing nearly twice that amount ($217 million) on a seven year contract to bring former Tiger David Price to Boston. Price’s other 2015 employer, Toronto, has been busy as well inking deals with J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada. The calendar just flipped to December so there is still plenty of time to get a stud starter. Here are the best arms remaining in play.
ZACK GREINKE, RHP (LOS ANGELES)
Greinke came up short in both of his 2015 quests. His Dodgers were eliminated in the NLCS by the Mets and he finished second to Jake Arrieta in the NL Cy Young voting. But if you thought David Price got PAID, just wait until you see what Greinke is going to get. If you’ve followed along here you know the gaudy stats Greinke put up in 2015. If not, here’s a recap of his brilliance. A win-loss record of 19-3 for an MLB best .864 winning percentage is a good place to start. You think wins are overrated and not indicative of a good season? Try on a 1.66 ERA (best since Greg Maddux in 1995) and .844 WHIP (15th best EVER) on for size. Want even deeper analytics? Well, you are getting greedy at this point but fine. His 225 ERA+ illustrates that he had the 15th best pitching season in the history of the sport. Greinke’s age (he turned 32 in October) is the only thing keeping him from reaching Clayton Kershaw $300 million territory. But plenty of teams are trying to find a way to make $200+ million work in their books, most especially the Dodgers. They already paid the highest luxury tax figure ever in $43.7 million. They won’t have any qualms about doing it again. The Red Sox are out of the equation by signing Price, but the Giants, Yankees, Cubs still lurk as potential suitors.
JOHNNY CUETO, RHP (KANSAS CITY)
Johnny Cueto has been looking forward to free agency for some time. The constant subject of trade rumors for the better part of three years in Cincinnati, the innings devouring right hander was finally dealt as the trade deadline approached. The move was all a starting pitcher could ask for as he traded the doldrums of the NL Central cellar for the chase of a World Series. And my oh my is he adding that extra money to his asking price after his new team Kansas City went and won the whole damn thing. Cueto struggled during his tenure in Kansas City (4-7, 4.76 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) but his time with the Reds makes for quite the impressive resume. Five straight years with an ERA under 3.00 (including half of 2015), a 20 win season, and five years of 30+ starts is about to make him a very rich man. Now as we’ve said before, Cueto isn’t quite in the Price/Greinke pay grade, but he should be in line to make a bit more than the $110 million Jordan Zimmermann received from Detroit. Expect the Angels, Giants, Cubs, and Blue Jays to give agent Bryce Dixon a ring during or before the Winter Meetings.
MIKE LEAKE, RHP (SAN FRANCISCO)
Having made the leap straight from Arizona State to the Majors, Mike Leake is the second youngest free agent pitcher on the market. The right hander just turned 28 in November. Like Johnny Cueto, Leake started his season with Cincinnati yet was traded at the July 31st deadline to San Francisco. While Cueto’s Royals made it back to the World Series, the other half of the 2014 edition of the Fall Classic wasn’t as lucky. Leake had control issues during his short tenure in the Bay Area, but he was done in by shoddy relief work more than his own doing. Leake isn’t an imposing force on the mound, but he is a solid second banana for the majority of the rotations in the MLB. He is as reliable as a starting pitcher on his level comes making 30 starts in each of the last four seasons and pitching 167 2/3 innings or more in five consecutive campaigns. The starting pitcher market dries up considerably after Leake. The Cubs, Rockies, and Orioles have all inquired about him. Expect the Twins, Yankees, and Blue Jays to do the same.
YOVANI GALLARDO, RHP (TEXAS)
If your club is combing the starting pitcher pool for a durable, dependable arm at a “bargain”, look no further than Texas’ Yovani Gallardo. He will turn 30 next February and is just entering his prime. He made a seamless transition from the NL to AL last season and is a workhorse. He’s made 30+ starts in seven consecutive seasons and never pitched less than 180 innings in any of those years. He isn’t the front line ace that Texas tried to make him in 2015, but he is surely a premium number two or three starter. He won’t tie up a great deal of a club’s budget either. The only tricky thing with Gallardo is that he rejected Texas’ qualifying offer. That means any team that signs him will surrender a draft pick to Texas in the 2016 MLB First Year Player Draft. Teams with top ten protection like Arizona or Philadelphia are looking hard at Gallardo. Other teams without such a safety net, like the Cubs and Orioles, are doing their due diligence on the righty so that they’re not wasteful with an important asset. Either way, a team is going to get a really good pitcher for about a quarter of the cost and half the contract length of David Price.
SCOTT KAZMIR, LHP (HOUSTON)
With David Price heading to Boston and J.A. Happ and Rich Hill off the board, Scott Kazmir stands atop the list of southpaw pitchers left on the free agent market. And what a hell of a consolation prize Kazmir would be. He has revived his career several times now and the latest metamorphosis of his pitching repertoire makes him that much more valuable. His left-handedness, and reasonable price tag, also makes him the most coveted starting pitcher on this list so far. Teams at the top and the bottom of the standings are showing high levels of interest in Kazmir. He’ll be looking to do a little better than his last contract with Oakland which was 2 years and $20 million. That was coming off one halfway decent season following two completely lost ones. One last three year deal isn’t out of the question for Kazmir.
THE BEST OF THE REST
Jeff Samardzija, RHP (Chicago (AL))- Samardzija has the stuff that GMs drool over, but his inability to string together quality performances is worrisome. A starting pitcher of his caliber should be better than 47-61 with a 4.09 ERA lifetime. With that being said, teams are still looking to part with hefty sums to get him in the fold.
John Lackey, RHP (St. Louis)- Lackey has proven over the past couple of years that he still has some gas left in his tank. Even a two year deal for the 37 year old would be a shrewd business move.
Doug Fister, RHP (Washington)- Everything that could have went wrong last year in Washington did go wrong and that goes double for Doug Fister. He is still a fantastic middle of the rotation option and the Nationals’ disappointing 2015 will only make him that much more affordable.
Mat Latos, RHP (Los Angeles (AL))- The youngest free agent starting pitcher available is project that most teams can’t afford to undertake. He fell apart in Los Angeles and was released late on, making the trade of Dee Gordon hurt that much more for the NL West Champs. Can some team help him regain his confidence again? We’re looking at you St. Louis.
Cliff Lee, LHP (Philadelphia)- Is Cliff Lee finished? It wouldn’t cost you very much to find out.