In a betting line that would have had the late Rodney Dangerfield smirking about “no respect”, the #3 Utah Utes opened up as underdogs on the road this weekend against the USC Trojans. Utah is undefeated but still not getting the love from odds makers. That doubt might be a reflection of a national sentiment that’s still not sure if the Utes are as good as their AP ranking,
The USC Trojans enter in the midst of a disappointing season. Once the standard makers for the PAC-12 (then PAC-10), USC has lost three games already including two in conference. They’ll also fired their head coach continuing a wacky carousel of coaches since the departure of Pete Carroll. Steve Sarkisian’s midseason firing comes after not only the team’s disappointing start but also the coach’s admitted struggles with alcoholism.
Both teams come into Saturday afternoon’s game with something to prove and a national audience should be watching.
Utah’s Run So Far
Utah’s run to 6-0 is in no part due to their ability to do that … run. Senior RB Devontae Booker is currently the 10th best rusher in the nation with a 130.5 yards per game average. He’s also the Utes leading receiver with 23 receptions. While he doesn’t get much press outside of Salt Lake City, Booker is a real weapon that can do damage to opposing defenses.
(On an interesting side note, former Miami Hurricanes Head Coach Dennis Erickson is Utah’s running backs coach and he and Booker have a special relationship. You can read more about that here.)
How good is Booker? He’s currently the #4 ranked NFL prospect at his position and the top senior according to NFLDraftScout.com. His compact and bruising running style is effective in CFB and should translate to the NFL. The Utes have hopped his back in the past couple of weeks and that trend is likely to continue through the rest of the year.
How did they get here? In addition to being the only PAC 12 team left without a loss, they opened the season with a tough win over Michigan. Add in two more non-conference wins against Utah State and Fresno State and you arrive at this week. Along the way, the Utes dispatched of an upstart California team (30-24) and pulled away from Arizona State last week (34-18). They’ve become somewhat of darlings in the AP as they’ve jumped all the way to #3. For more on Utah’s rise, check out this previous article.
How far can Utah go? That question should be answered this week. Even though they’re playing a three loss team in USC, they’re still playing at USC. This is still a good team and Utah’s biggest challenge to date. If they can go in and win, they should be the odds on favorites to take the PAC-12 title. If not, I fear you’ll see them drop as quickly as they rose from the top of AP rankings.
Tale of Two Passers
Saturday’s game will feature two of the nation’s premier drop back QBs. Cody Kessler of USC remains on many Heisman watch lists, but his prospects are fading. As his team has been struggling, the senior QB has been pressing and trying to do too much on his own. The biggest indicator is that all five of his interceptions this season have been thrown over the past three games (USC went 1-2 during that stretch). Kessler’s also found himself on his backside too many times with 15 sacks on the season.
Even with those struggles, he remains one of the most seasoned passers in CFB. He is a three-year starter who has amassed over 8,000 yards passing in his career and will likely reach the 10,000 yard mark before he is finished. Even more impressive are the 76 TDs he’s thrown against on 17 INTs. Kessler is slightly undersized at 6″1 and 215 lbs, but other than that looks very much like former USC great Carson Palmer.
Kessler is an admitted perfectionist but it’s that tenacity for detail that has helped him proliferate his passing strengths. He throws as accurate a ball as you’ll see in CFB today and he has equal touch on the short screens as he does the deep out. If anything, Kessler can sometimes be too methodical. Sarkisian and the rest of the USC coaches encouraged him before the season to “let go” a bit and be more of a gunslinger. Lost in the fog of everything that’s collapsed at USC this year has been Kessler’s continued growth.
Utah’s defense will challenge Kessler to be more his cautious self than the new gunslinger. The Utes defense loves to take the ball away and will be looking for USC’s offense to make mistakes. If Kessler can be his typical efficient self, he’ll turn the pressure on Utah’s offense to keep up.
Utah’s Travis Wilson is a guy who had to fight for his starting job every year. He’s weathered many storms, including a serious medical scare that could have ended his career, and every spring he’s come back to prove he’s still the best QB on the Utes’ roster. This season, for the first time, this team is his without dispute.
And the senior QB is only getting better as the season progresses. Last week against Arizona State, Wilson went 26 of 36 for 297 yards and 2 TDs in leading his team to a 34-18 win. The win not only kept the Utes undefeated on the season, but also broke an 11-game losing streak to ASU. He did all of this in a game when Utah’s rushing attack was essentially a non-factor.
His biggest game of the year so far came against Oregon. Wilson accounted for 327 yards of offense including 100 yards rushing. He threw four touchdowns and ran for another. While the Ducks may not be the PAC 12 powerhouse they’ve been in previous seasons, it was still a great statement game for Travis Wilson.
Against USC, he’ll face the most athletic defense he’s seen all season. Like Oregon, USC isn’t having a banner year but that doesn’t discount the caliber of athletes they’ll put on the field. No other team in the conference has more five-star recruits than the Trojans.
Why Utah Will Win
One of the keys to Utah’s success comes in the giveaway/takeaway category. Going into this week’s game, Utah is 2nd in the nation in turnover margin. Any seasoned football coach will tell you this not just another stat and that winning the turnover battle means more possessions and should mean more points. If they can force USC into making mistakes, they’ve got an edge.
Opponents are averaging 167 yards rushing per game and nearly four and half yards per carry. The Utes are averaging 192 rushing yards per game. See where this is going? The formula is simple and straightforward — Utah needs to establish the run and pound the ball against USC’s defense. It’s always important for visiting teams to be able to establish the running game to help neutralize the home crowd, but as an added bonus if Utah can run the ball effectively, they can keep USC QB Cody Kessler off the field as well.
Why USC Will Win
The Trojans are in a bad spot. They’re coming off a tough loss against Notre Dame. They’ve already lost two home games this year. The PAC 12 title is effectively out of reach. But this is a proud program and I would expect these guys to show up to play.
They do have the 12th best passing attack in the nation led by Kessler. They can put points on the board quick and they have some explosive athletes. In fact, on paper, USC clearly has the better team. Maybe that’s why Vegas believes they will win this game. Bottom line: if the Trojans play to their potential they can beat anybody including Utah.
The BOLD Prediction
I do not like to bet against The House … and I won’t: USC 33, Utah 28