In the pantheon of American consumption of professional sport and spectacle, the world of monster truck rallies is perhaps as far as possible from the expat pub culture of supporters for European football clubs. But with rivalry fixtures throughout Europe, this weekend at the very least, the oft-lampooned hyperbole of Sunday-Sunday-SUNDAY seems perfectly apt. From Munich to Madrid, Liverpool to London, October 4th is poised to be a match day with implications not only for local rivalry bragging rights, but for trophies as well.
Everton v. Liverpool 8:30 AM EDT, Goodison Park, Liverpool
Roberto Martinez has never been a man without belief. The Everton manager emphasized that what happens on the field will trump all else, but admitted this week that Liverpool’s transfer budget and “huge investment” in the squad meant that they would be favorites while traveling down the road to Everton. This is what one might call ‘the classy Mourinho.’
No, it’s not a cocktail; it’s a tactic designed to remove as much pressure as possible from your players’ shoulders, and while the Chelsea manager is famed for his headline-grabbing jabs and antics, don’t believe for one moment that Martinez isn’t doing precisely the same thing here.
“I don’t think being favourites matters going into a derby, it’s about what happens in 90 minutes and your focus on the pitch. Clearly we are showing a bit of form and that could make us favourites but when you look at the money Liverpool have spent over the years they need to be favourites and carrying the expectation.”
And within those 90 minutes, I expect Everton to step up and defend their home ground, potentially even keeping a clean sheet against the cross-town rivals. Martinez’s men have lost only one match this entire season, a 0-2 home defeat to Manchester City in August. Since then, they have remained undefeated, including an impressive 3-1 defeat of Chelsea, and most recently, a 2-3 comeback victory over West Brom. Liverpool, by contrast, saw their midweek fixture full of frustration, as they were only able to manage a 1-1 draw at home against FC Sion in the Europa League.
Prediction: Everton 2 – 0 Liverpool
Arsenal v. Manchester United 11:00 AM EDT, Emirates Stadium, London
Manchester United will travel down to North London on Sunday as league leaders, but their swagger will come as much from recent domination of this fixture as from sitting atop the table. The last time Arsenal picked up all three points at home when Manchester United came knocking was May of 2011, a match in which Aaron Ramsey scored the lone goal. It was a crucial one, as those points helped assure Arsenal would retain a spot in the top four, qualifying for the Champion’s League, but that was a long time ago. Since then, it’s been mostly misery at the Emirates when the Red Devils are in town.
Unfortunately for Arsenal fans, this weekend may be no different. With David De Gea back in goal, and with momentum behind them from recent wins at home last weekend against Sunderland in the EPL, and over Wolfsburg midweek in the Champions League, Manchester United are riding into London not only the top of the table, but on the back of a fine run of form as well.
Arsenal, by contrast, seem to be on the downturn of this season’s seemingly incessant roller coaster of form. Manchester United have both recent history and recent form on their side. Still, as Martinez has stressed, it’s what happens on the pitch, not in the match day program, that really matters.
And on that pitch, unless Arsenal can regain their solid defensive discipline of last season, the Gunners’ string of ‘win two, lose two’ will be extended to an eight game pattern. If Arsenal can’t manage a clean sheet in this one, they might just fall to pieces, and whatever the passionate pressing for a goal from Alexis, they’ll fall short defensively.
Prediction: Arsenal 1 – 2 Manchester United
Bayern Munich v. Borussia Dortmund 11:30 AM, Allianz Arena, Munich
At the moment, Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich are the class of Europe. In the Champions League, Bayern recorded convincing wins over Olympiakos 3-0, and Dynamo Zagreb 5-0—both teams that defeated Arsenal—and sit comfortably atop their group. Domestically, they’ve been just as good: which is to say, they’ve been perfect.
In both Europe and the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich have yet to drop a single point this season, with a whopping +20 goal difference already on their side in the Bundesliga. Dortmund may be second in the table, but the gap between the two teams’ form is more significant. While Bayern have been cruising to five-goal masterpieces, Dortmund have struggled, only managing a draw in their past three matches.
But if they can make that be four draws in a row on Sunday, the visitors will have to take it as a positive. Because honestly, whatever Dortmund’s aspirations, Bayern Munich are the class of Germany by some distance. Unfortunately for other clubs, the question is less about winning the league, more seeing how long they can keep Bayern from doing so. Last season, it was not very long at all, as the Bavarian giants clinched the title in record time, securing the championship with nearly a quarter of the fixtures left to play.
Dortmund might hope to slow down Bayern’s juggernaut—but it isn’t likely.
A chief executive at Dortmund recently commented that, because Borussia Dortmund discovered and developed Robert Lewandowski, his recent success at Bayern Munich is “in a sense, a confirmation of our work.” If the former Dortmund man continues his blistering goalscoring pace against his old club this Sunday, that may prove little consolation.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 3 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Atletico Madrid v. Real Madrid 2:30 PM EDT, Vicente Calderon, Madrid
Villareal is top of La Liga. Real Madrid and Barcelona have dropped four and three points respectively. Lionel Messi is, in all likelihood, out until La Liga’s winter break. It’s still early, but in a league traditionally dominated by two teams, the 2015 – 2016 La Liga race looks to be as open as it’s been in some time.
If Atletico Madrid can hold out at home for a win over Los Blancos, Atleti will leapfrog Real in the table, potentially going as high as second depending on results elsewhere.
But don’t bank on it.
Cristiano Ronaldo has struggled in La Liga so far this season, having failed to get on the score sheet more often than not in the first half dozen fixtures. But against Malmo in the Champions League this week, Ronaldo bagged himself an historic brace, not only breaking 500 goals for his career, but equalizing immortal striker Raul’s mark of Real Madrid goals at 323. Look for Ronaldo to continue his midweek form, turning up his best domestic performance of the year when it really counts, in the Madrid derby.
Prediction: Atletico Madrid 0 – 2 Real Madrid