Maybe it’s a testament to the season the Georgia Bulldogs are having. Maybe it’s a chink in the Crimson armor of Alabama football. Or maybe it’s just Las Vegas having some fun. But for the first time in 73 games, #13 Alabama is listed at the underdog as they travel this Saturday to Sanford Stadium to face #8 Georgia.
Nick Saban’s team comes in with a 3-1 record off an easy win against University of Louisiana – Monroe. In that win, Bama’s defense (a signature during Saban’s tenure) was downright nasty yielding a measly 92 yards to ULM’s offense. If the Tide are going to pull off an upset this week, they’ll need that stout defense to show up again.
Mark Richt’s team comes into the game with a perfect 4-0 mark on the season. They also had a easy time against their week 4 opponent as they blew out Southern 48-6. And while they’ve already played two SEC opponents on the year, critics will note their schedule thus far has been soft. They are average margin of victory is 32 points may be a bit misleading. Nonetheless, the Bulldogs are undefeated with a chance to make the ultimate statement on Saturday.
The Shadow of Herschel Walker
The Georgia Bulldogs have a great tradition of running the ball. It’s impossible to be a very good (maybe great) Bulldog back without seeing the shadows of those who’ve carried the ball before you. Sophomore Nick Chubb is not just a man running from any shadow, he’s running from biggest of them all.
Four games into his second season and there are whispers on and off campus comparing him to a college football legend. Herschel Walker was the greatest running back in school history and one of the best in NCAA history. He was the perfect combination of power and speed unlike anything the fans in Athens, GA had ever seen before. Now, they might just be witnesses Walker’s true heir.
It doesn’t hurt that Chubb’s had the opportunity to sit down with Walker, who logically is his idol. And it doesn’t hurt when your idol is following every game and cheering for you on social media, as Herschel did last week when Chubb tied his school record with his 12th straight 100+ yard rushing game.
Congrats to @FootballUGA RB @NickChubb21 on his 12th straight 100-yard game. Keep it rolling!!! #GoDawgs
— Herschel Walker (@HerschelWalker) September 27, 2015
While the comparisons are steep, most would argue they’re valid. Like Walker, Chubb is powerful runner with monster legs and the ability to break tackles. He is also deceptively quick and is a hard back for a defender to get a solid angle on. For the season, Chubb has rushed for 599 yards and is averaging 8.4 yards per carry. Again evoking memories of Walker, Pro Football Focus and others have ranked Chubb as the most elusive back in college football.
This year is a follow up to his sensational freshman campaign, in which he ran for 1547 yards with a 7.1 yards per carry average. Let’s face it – he’s not sneaking up on opponents, but defenses still can’t seem to contain him. The best job done so far was actually accomplished by Southern last week. During the first half, Southern managed to hold Chubb to a mere 36 yards rushing. Unfortunately for them, they couldn’t slow him down in the last two quarters as Georgia’s Heisman hopeful ended with 131 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns. This week against Alabama, Chubb will be looking for yet another 100 yard rushing game and the school record he would take from his idol.
Can Jake Coker Be The Man?
Alabama started the season without a clear #1 QB. Saban wouldn’t commit to a QB until the kickoff of week one. While he wasn’t the only coach to do this (Urban Meyer, I’m looking at you) none of the major teams with heated QB battles seem to be better off for it.
Senior Jake Coker is currently the man for the Crimson Tide. He’s a big, prototypical pocket passing QB putting 230 lbs on a 6”4 frame. He has an appearance similar to several big time SEC QBs that have gone before him — Jay Barker, Aaron Murray, and even Peyton Manning. However, Coker has yet to play anything like those SEC legends.
He has the arm strength to get the ball downfield. While he does go through streaks where he will consistently hit the open man, he’s been prone over the past three games to throw the ball to players wearing the other colors (4 INTs). Bama is at their best when Coker is limited to about 25 attempts. So far, when they need him to do more (40+ vs. Ole Miss), he’s not able to deliver. Which simply means Saban’s boys better be able to run the ball.
They’ll likely need Coker to make a play or two on Saturday. Georgia knows that the Tide will want to run the ball with Derrick Henry both early and often. They’ll stack at least seven in the box to stop him and force Coker to beat them. Based on his play so far this year, that’s a gamble worth taking for Georgia. Now Coker needs to make a statement to them (and the rest of the SEC).
A.J. Carron set the bar for Alabama QBs a few seasons back. In winning back-to-back championships, Carron showed that in Saban’s system the QB needs to play mistake free and make just enough plays to show the defense there is a guy with an arm back there. Other than that, you hand the ball off and let your defense do the rest.
While it sounds simple enough, Saturday will be another big test for Jake Coker. The Crimson Tide can be beat weaker teams without expecting much from him. But in order to beat a contender like Georgia, they need Jake to be the man.
How Alabama Will Win
Again, the Alabama offense will want to run the ball with Derrick Henry shouldering the load. It’s important that they get him going early. Henry has had a “Helter Skelter” season thus far — he looking Heisman worthy in week one versus Wisconsin and then looked average the next week against Middle Tennessee. In last week’s win against ULM, he was limited to 13 carries for 52 yards. He’ll have to look a lot more like the guy we saw against Wisconsin in the opening game if the Tide want to roll.
Alabama’s strength is still their defense and they’ll need a big game on that side of the ball. Saban has loaded his defense with 5-star recruits (12 according to Bleacher Report). And it’s not just talent on paper, these guys have shown up on Saturdays too. Currently, the Bama defense ranks #4 against the run and #12 overall nationally.
It’ll take a stout defense that limits the damage caused by Nick Chubb and just enough plays by Jake Coker for Alabama to pull off the upset in Athens.
How Georgia Will Win
The Bulldogs need to control the time of possession by running the ball against one of the best defenses in the country. They have an offensive line anchored by three seniors, a junior and sophomore guard Isaiah Wynn. Chubb needs to make a living between the tackles on Saturday if Georgia’s run effectively. That puts the Bulldog OL on collision course with the Bama front seven and in turn, that’s likely where this game will be decided.
Georgia’s defense is led by outside linebacker Jordan Jenkins. He was selected in the preseason to the All-SEC 1st team and during the first two games of the season, he played like he deserved the recognition (18 TT, 3 Sacks). But over the past two Saturdays, Jenkins has done a bit of disappearing act accounting for a mere 5 TT against South Carolina and Southern combined. Jenkins will need to step it up against Alabama this week. The game could easily hinge on turnovers just as Bama’s only loss to Ole Miss did. Which means if the Bulldogs are going to win, they’ll need a play or two from their defense.
Interesting note on Jenkins: he was heavily recruited by Saban and Bama before choosing Georgia. Read more about that here.
Conclusion
There may not be a bigger game on the regular season schedule this year.
Period.
Have no illusions, after Saturday the college playoff picture will shift.
If Georgia wins, they could run the table to the SEC championship game. Florida, Auburn, Tennessee and Missouri would have something to say about it … but the Bulldogs seem to be a better team than of them.
Even if Alabama wins, they’ve got Mississippi State, LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn to get through if they want to return trip to the SEC championship game.
Georgia has to treat this like what it is … the game that will define their 2015 season.
The BOLD Prediction
Mark Richt’s team comes through in a close game – Georgia 27, Alabama 24