In the annals of baseball, few pitchers shine with sparkling reputations. The likes of Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Nolan Ryan are the some of the greatest of all time, but one legend stands among the rest, immortalized in history: Cy Young. Thus, it is only fitting that year after year, the baseball community returns a verdict on the season’s best Cy Young impersonation.
The winner of the hardware for pitching greatness, however, has often been determined by the time August concludes its schedules, one pitcher becomes dominant toward the end of the race, and the winner is expected by the conclusion of the season. Just look at the Cy Young Award voting for the past five seasons: since 2010, there have only been two results that were somewhat unpredictable. In 2012, David Price, then pitching for the team that drafted him, the Tampa Bay Rays, won by just four points over perennial contender, Justin Verlander. Then, last year, Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians shocked many critics by defeating Felix Hernandez by ten points. For the other eight Cy Young Award races since 2010, no pitcher has won with an advantage fewer than 56 points, with Roy Halladay (2010), Justin Verlander (2011), and Clayton Kershaw (2014) being voted unanimously by garnering all first-place votes.
In 2015, the script has flipped. It is safe to say that not a single pitcher has been able to run away with the award thus far, with fewer than 20 games left on the schedule. Today, we take a look at the contenders of each league’s greatest pitching prize, and the probability of which the pitcher will win. If you are a betting man, stay tuned:
NL Cy Young Award:
- Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers, 45%
- Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs, 37%
- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers, 8%
- Jacob deGrom, New York Mets, 6%
- Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants, 4%
The frontrunner of the Senior Circuit’s Cy Young Award has to be Zack Greinke heading into the home stretch. The 31-year-old is having one of the best seasons in recent memory, with an incredibly low ERA that will enter the history books. Aside from a significant 1.65 ERA, he also has a WHIP of 0.85 with 18 wins, while striking out 185 batters. Oh, and he recorded the fourth-longest shutout streak in MLB history. As if we had doubts that he wasn’t human.
Then, hot on his heels is surprising candidate Jake Arrieta. In his age 29 season, Arrieta has pitched to the tune of 15 consecutive quality starts. A quality start is when a starting pitcher throws for six or more innings without surrendering more than three runs. In case anyone forgot about his other accomplishments this year, he also has a no-hitter and a 30.2-inning shutout streak to his name. If this were any other year, the anchor of the Cubs pitching staff may be the unanimous decision for the award.
Rounding out the top five are two other perennial contenders and a surprising sophomore. Kershaw, last year’s NL Cy Young Award winner, has continued his Hall of Fame résumé, setting up one of the best one-two punches in baseball with Greinke. MadBum, similarly, has followed up a 2014 campaign in which he was fourth in the voting with yet another impressive season – not to mention his otherworldly at-bats this year. Most surprisingly, perhaps, is Jacob deGrom, who has been even more impressive than his Rookie of the Year campaign last season. Along with Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, the trio has been sensational to watch and a pain to bat against.
AL Cy Young Award:
- David Price, Toronto Blue Jays, 45%
- Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros, 38%
- Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays, 9%
- Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics, 4%
- Scott Kazmir, Houston Astros, 4%
For the majority of the season, Keuchel had a stranglehold on the entire race, with no pitchers having threatened his dominance. With his last start – the worst of his young career – Keuchel allowed nine earned runs in just 4.2 innings, and saw his previously league-best ERA swell from 2.22 to 2.56. At the same time, David Price has caught fire, pitching gem after gem, and overtaking the AL ERA lead with a mighty 2.34. Although Keuchel continues to have a better WHIP than Price, the latter has been more dominant with impressive strikeout numbers. Without a doubt, this will be a race to the finish.
Behind the leading duo are a pair of former Athletics teammates and a phenomenal strikeout artist. Gray and Kazmir formed a formidable rotation in 2014 and the first half of 2015, but since disbanding, the two have continued their impressive runs. Although not a threat to Price and Keuchel at this point in the season, Gray and Kazmir will be contenders for years to come.
Aside from the pair, Chris Archer has continued to position himself as one of the young premier talents of the league, striking out batters consistently and beautifully. Players around the league respect Archer despite his young age, and fear playing against him whenever the rotation aligns. Before his career is over, provided he stays healthy, Archer is a safe bet for multiple Cy Young Awards.