For baseball fans worldwide, truer words have never been spoken beyond the iconic title of Green Day’s hit single: “Wake Me Up When September Ends.”
We all watch intently from the early days of April to the late nights of September, but for all our efforts, we yearn for the reward that sweeps in with the arrival of October. The postseason defines every North American sports league, and the continent’s oldest professional league is no exception.
Fortunately, the long and laborious regular season is singing its last tunes. The gladiators of 2015 are beginning to emerge, poised for battle in the latest chapter of the history books. However, with a sprinkle more than 40 games remaining, only a couple teams can confidently declare themselves qualified for an opportunity to compete in the Fall Classic.
With virtually every division still up for grabs, as well as two Wild Card berths per league, this is the perfect time to project into the conclusion of the season and choose our pennant winners.
National League East: Washington Nationals
Yes, the New York Mets currently have a 4.5 game lead over the Nationals, with a historic trio of starters (Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard) anchoring the rotation. It is easy to jump to the conclusion that the Mets will run away with this division.
On the other hand, the Nationals counter with an equally impressive rotation, led by a returning Stephen Strasburg, and completed by Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and early Cy Young contender Max Scherzer. National League MVP frontrunner Bryce Harper is back in the lineup, and Washington has 6 more games against the leading Mets.
The capital’s team has lost six straight, but to the likes of the NL West-leading Dodgers and the runner-up Giants. This speed bump has exaggerated the edge that the Mets actually possess. The remainder of the season, however, aside from the Mets, the Nationals only play one series against a team above .500: the league-leading Cardinals. The Mets will have to face the Orioles and the Yankees in addition to the pivotal games against Washington.
The final three games for both teams are against one another, and so, no lead fewer than 3.0 games is safe when Game 160 rolls around on October 2nd. And trust me, this division will go right down to the wire.
National League Central: St. Louis Cardinals
There is no arguing with the best team of the season. The Cardinals are projected to win 104 games this season, a feat that has not been accomplished in MLB since the 2004 Cardinals.
The Redbirds have a tough schedule remaining, including 5 games against the Giants, 3 versus the Nationals, and 6 each against rivals Pirates and Cubs. The top three teams in the NL Central division have the three best records in the Senior Circuit, and any lead can evaporate with a series sweep at the hands of Pittsburgh or Chicago, but at the blistering pace that the Cardinals have been racking up victories, that is likely not in the foreseeable future.
National League West: Los Angeles Dodgers
With the league’s best one-two punch in 2015 NL Cy Young award frontrunner Zach Greinke and perennial Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw, even an injured Hyun-Jin Ryu has not slowed the team down.
The closest team in the division – and the only team with a shot at the pennant – is the defending World Champions, the San Francisco Giants. Being just 3.0 games back of the Dodgers entering Tuesday, it is easy to understand some of the delusions boasted by Giants fans. However, even with a 9-3 record against the Dodgers this season, the Blue Crew has the edge in the division, especially with the Giants set to play 15 consecutive games against postseason contenders.
And Giants fans, it’s 2015 after all. Not an even-numbered year.
National League Wild Cards: Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs
The Central division is on pace to send three teams to the postseason for the first time. The Cubs have a 4.0 game lead over the Giants, the only team with a realistic shot at knocking one of the two leading teams out of a playoff berth.
Both teams are young and hungry, with the Bucs having just emerged from a 20-year losing streak, and the Cubs missing the Fall Classic every year since the end of World War II. The Giants, on the other hand, have won three World Series championships in the past five years. The drive of perennial losers far outweighs the satisfaction of champions.
American League East: Toronto Blue Jays
Bluebird starters are currently on a streak of 20 consecutive games where they have surrendered 3 runs or fewer. That will help win a lot of ballgames. Combine that drastic improvement in starting pitching with a supersized bullpen anchored by rookie sensation Roberto Osuna in the closer role, setup man Aaron Sanchez, and veterans Mark Lowe and LaTroy Hawkins, and it is hard to see how the Blue Jays can ever lose again. And we haven’t even considered the league’s best offense.
Of course, it is not realistic to think that Toronto will go on to win all of its final 43 games, but considering the 7 games remaining between the Jays and the current division leaders, the New York Yankees, and an 8-4 record in favour of the North, the Bombers are simply at a disadvantage.
Toronto now features a potent lineup of Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, José Bautista, and Edwin Encarnación at the top, but also supported by the likes of Chris Colabello, Justin Smoak, Ben Revere, and perennial All-Star Russell Martin. Not to take anything away from a star-studded offense showcasing Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Brian McCann, but the younger stars in Canada are simply hungrier for competition in October.
Even New York knows that Toronto is shattering all expectations, after witnessing its 8.0 game lead on July 28th be erased just half a month later, following a sizzling 14-1 record by the Jays. During that stretch, not too long ago, Toronto actually took the division lead, much to the surprise of the Pinstripes. And before long, the Jays will reclaim the top spot – for good.
American League Central: Kansas City Royals
Similar to the situation in the National League counterpart, the Royals have been the best team in the Junior Circuit all season long, having returned from a surprising AL championship season and an agonizing Game 7 defeat in the World Series last year.
In an underwhelming division, the closest contender is the slumping Twins, who have a flat .500 record at 59 games and 12.5 games behind the Boys in Blue. Minnesota, despite early success, won’t even make the playoffs, ensuring that this division is a foregone conclusion.
American League West: Houston Astros
“The City With A Problem” may have 99 of them, but missing the postseason won’t be one. A couple of years ahead of its rebuilding schedule, Houston has surprised the baseball world by leading the division over favourites like the Angels, the Rangers, and the Athletics. Oakland aside, the other two contenders are not having particularly bad seasons either, making the 2015 Astros that much more impressive.
Both the Angels and the Rangers are within 1.0 game of a Wild Card berth, which will almost certainly be erased a number of times throughout the remainder of the season. The number that will not disappear, however, is 2.5, the number of games that the Astros are currently leading the division. Behind Dallas Keuchel’s strong season, the Spacemen have led nearly the entire year.
And Orbit is having fun.
American League Wild Cards: New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels
The Baltimore Orioles currently hold sole possession of the second Wild Card berth. However, the O’s simply do not have the depth in its rotation, or an ace, to endure the difficult schedule ahead. Pitching wins championships, but this season, pitching is needed to simply carry the team into the postseason.
With the prediction above, though, hides a second prediction. Although the Angels will ultimately win the second Wild Card, it will be achieved in Game 163 – in a tiebreaker. At the conclusion of the regular season, the Halos and the Rangers will be tied for that elusive entry into the playoffs, and thus, will have to play a winner-takes-all elimination game.
Breaking down that clutch game, Los Angeles will have to send Hector Santiago to the mound, matching up against Texas’ Cole Hamels. Both pitchers are prone to cracking under pressure, as both teams have lost their ace to injuries (Angels’ C.J. Wilson, Rangers’ Yu Darvish). Powered by offense, the tandem of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, who have proven themselves among the league’s best hitters all season long, will out-duel the duo of Adrián Beltré and Prince Fielder, leaving heartbreak in Texas.
At the end of the day, only 10 teams will earn a shot at the greatest prize in baseball, but when Dan Shulman and E.J. kick off the broadcasts for the postseason, the qualified teams will have earned every bit of those playoff spots.