Break time means make-or-break time.
The statement has never rung truer than the first half of the 2015 MLB season in the American League East. Entering the All-Star stretch, only 6.5 games separate first-place Yankees and last-place Red Sox, and given the multiple intra-divisional series left to be played in the second half of the season, fans can expect to see some playoff races intensify between more than two of these AL East teams in September.
The goal of every season remains the same for all 30 teams in the league: win the World Series. To get there, however, requires more personnel and decision-making than any individual will ever realize. The past 5 teams that have gone on to become the King of Baseball have all made monumental trades at the deadline that season, namely the 2010 Giants’ acquisition of now four-time World Series Champion Javier López, the 2011 Cardinals’ blockbuster trade for Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski, an outrageously lop-sided trade for Hunter Pence by the 2012 Giants, the addition of Jake Peavy by the 2013 Red Sox, and the perfect trade from the 2014 Giants for the same Jake Peavy.
The point is, non-waiver deadline trades are crucial to a team’s ultimate success. With a division entirely up for grabs at this point in the season, each AL East team needs that Jake Peavy trade to bolster their roster. Let’s take a look at each team’s needs and the pieces that can be offered in return to complete the trades.
First, here are some statistics from MLB.com to sound off in a discussion.
Offensive Categories for American League East at All-Star Break
| Team | HR | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | OPS |
| Yankees | 116 | 389 | 289 | 640 | .254 | .323 | .748 |
| Orioles | 110 | 370 | 217 | 717 | .255 | .310 | .732 |
| Blue Jays | 115 | 468 | 298 | 650 | .264 | .331 | .772 |
| Rays | 78 | 313 | 249 | 741 | .240 | .305 | .682 |
| Red Sox | 84 | 355 | 277 | 581 | .257 | .322 | .718 |
Pitching Categories for American League East at All-Star Break
| Team | ERA | SV | SVO | H | BB | SO | AVG |
| Yankees | 3.96 | 27 | 33 | 774 | 227 | 743 | .255 |
| Orioles | 3.74 | 26 | 32 | 723 | 261 | 670 | .249 |
| Blue Jays | 4.18 | 14 | 28 | 792 | 251 | 632 | .257 |
| Rays | 3.56 | 37 | 45 | 719 | 274 | 751 | .236 |
| Red Sox | 4.44 | 23 | 32 | 822 | 251 | 651 | .266 |
Red Sox
Needs: Two-spot starting pitcher, middle reliever(s), leadoff and/or #9 hitter
Can offer: Rafael Devers, 3B (MLB.com #80 prospect), Manuel Margot, OF (MLB.com #83 prospect), Mike Napoli, 1B/C
The BoSox need to make a decision: have a fire sale this season and rely on young prospects to carry the team next year, or sacrifice a promising future to contend in one of David Ortiz’s final seasons. GM Ben Cherington feels as though the Red Sox can still make a late playoff push, especially with a returning Dustin Pedroia after the All-Star break, but with the suspicious injury to Boston’s ace, Clay Buchholz, they will not be able to compete in October. An AL-worst 4.44 ERA is indicative of the pitching needed, and neither the 3.89 bullpen ERA nor the 4.75 starter ERA are sparkling numbers to say the least.
The truth is, the 2015 Red Sox are far from contendership. Despite only being 6.5 games back of the Yankees, Boston no longer has the depth to make a run in the postseason against the likes of the Kansas City Royals. The pitchers available for acquisition are all well-known at this point, with names like Sonny Gray and Johnny Cueto becoming more and more prominent on the trading block, but the price tags are too costly.
The farm system of the Red Sox is among the most promising, as the top prospects are well-balanced. From Yoan Moncada at second base to a trio of southpaws in Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brian Johnson, Boston will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
2015 just isn’t the season.
Rays
Needs: Power hitters x2, veteran cleanup hitter, middle reliever(s)
Can offer: Nate Karns, SP, Alex Colome, SP, Erasmo Ramirez, SP
The trend is obvious: the Rays have starting pitchers to spare. The starting staff of Tampa Bay has pitched their way to a tremendous 3.33 ERA behind first-time All-Star Chris Archer, and on a pitching lineup where three of the six perennial starters this year are only 25 years old (Matt Andriese, Jake Odorizzi, Erasmo Ramirez), and the oldest starter is 27-year-old Nate Karns, the Rays will be the team to turn to for pitching help.
However, the bullpen is less than sterling, having already cost the Rays an AL-worst 19 games this season, en route to a 3.95 ERA, worst in the AL East. Starters have always been more coveted than bullpen help, and as such, the Rays should be able to uncover a few gems for the price of one of their young starters.
Aside from late-inning woes, the Rays also cannot hit their way out of a wet paper bag. Scoring just 3.65 runs per game, Tampa may very well play host to the league’s worst team this season if it were not for the starters. Aside from the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago White Sox, two of the bottom three teams in the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays are last in RBIs, hits, and on-base percentage (OBP).
It’s true that pitching wins championships, but unless every pitcher on the Rays delivers a daily Nolan Ryan-esque performance, Tampa Bay needs to start scoring more runs, and it all begins with extra-base hits. Once runners are in scoring position, the presence of a veteran cleanup hitter who can rake in RBIs will cause trouble for opposing teams.
Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, their farm system has been depleted due to trades and promotions, and now, they have nothing to offer rebuilding teams. With only three players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 75 Prospects – none of which are pitchers – the Rays will need to part ways with several regulars to fill their needs. For this season, it will take a miracle to become AL’s best.
The Rays are no strangers to miracles though.
Yankees
Needs: Four-spot starting pitcher, middle reliever
Can offer: CC Sabathia, SP, Jorge Mateo, SS (#3 Yankees prospect), Jacob Lindgren, LHP (#9 Yankees prospect), Luis Torrens, C (#10 Yankees prospect)
There’s a reason why the Yankees are in first place. Winning 7 of their last 10 games heading into the break, the Bronx Bombers have taken over the divisional lead and proceeded to open up a lead of 3.5 games over the Rays. Just a couple of pitchers away from becoming a real World Series contender, the team we love to hate has so many pieces to offer.
New York will always be able to attract top-level talent, but at this point, the Yankees do not need that kind of player. A bottom-of-the-rotation starter, coupled with a solid middle reliever who could prevent runs from scoring, and the pinstripes can give the Royals a run for their AL crown.
CC Sabathia, one of the best pitchers since the turn of the century, is finally losing the fight against Father Time. After a near career-ending knee injury last season, Sabathia has pitched to a 4-8 record with a 5.47 ERA, a far cry from what fans have come to expect from the former ace. However, at the age of 34, Sabathia may have one last run in him, and teams searching for a durable veteran pitcher should be all ears.
Similar to their franchise rivals, the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees have spent time replenishing their farm system, and according to many scouts, it has become one of the most promising in baseball. New York will undoubtedly be willing to offer a couple of their young players in exchange for a run at championship silver this year, but the front office must remember to save some for their own roster. After all, Mark Teixeira is 35 years old, and sure-fire Hall of Famer Alex Rodriguez is two weeks from his 40th birthday.
Count on the sport’s most decorated team to make a big move come trade deadline time.
Orioles
Needs: Veteran hitter, four-spot starting pitcher, five-spot starting pitcher
Can offer: Brad Brach, RHP, Chaz Roe, RHP, Christian Walker, 1B (Orioles #3 prospect), Chance Sisco, C (Orioles #5 prospect), Tim Berry, LHP (Orioles #6 prospect)
Just a quick glance at Baltimore’s offensive numbers will lead to the conclusion that there are no offensive woes. However, having lost 10 of their last 13 games, with starters taking the loss in 7 of those defeats, it’s clear that the lineup is simply not winning games. With those numbers, it may be easy to blame the starting pitching, which has accumulated a mediocre ERA of 4.20, but in five of the losses, the team only gave up four runs or fewer. The bats have not been able to support the pitchers when they are needed, often losing by two runs or fewer.
The offensive problem lies within the youth and inexperience of the Baltimore lineup. The Orioles have struck out 717 times in the first half of the season, third-most in the American League, while walking just 217 times, third-lowest in the AL. A disciplined veteran hitter who can get on base, as well as teach the youngsters to be more patient at the plate, will allow the Orioles to take advantage of their .290 average with runners in scoring position, and score more runs.
The starters have been polarizing as well. From Wei-Yin Chen’s 2.78 ERA and Ubaldo Jimenez’s 2.81 ERA to Bud Norris’ 6.86 ERA, the Orioles have been inconsistent with their pitching. To make a push for the divisional lead, the hurlers at the bottom of the rotation need to step up, or step down and let others replace them.
On the bright side, the Orioles have pitchers to spare in their farm system. 7 of the top 10 Orioles prospects are pitchers, and if a couple of them could develop in a month or so, they could be promoted to help out in the big leagues. If not, teams are always in need of young pitching talents, and they could serve as the blue chips on the trading block for Baltimore.
Traditionally, the Orioles haven’t been able to part with their youngsters though.
Blue Jays
Needs: Two-spot starting pitcher, four-spot starting pitcher, middle relievers, new manager
Can offer: Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH, Dioner Navarro, C/DH, Ryan Goins, 2B/SS, Mitch Nay, 3B (Jays #8 prospect), Matt Boyd, LHP (Jays #19 prospect), Brett Cecil, LHP, Aaron Loup, LHP
It’s no secret that the Jays are in desperate need for some pitching. The starters have been inconsistent all year, with the exception of Mark Buehrle, and the bullpen has no reliability beyond young closer Roberto Osuna. Relievers like Bo Schultz, Ryan Tepera, and Liam Hendriks have stepped up as of late, but Toronto needs consistency.
Out of the AL East teams, however, the Blue Jays have the most big-league talent to offer. With an outstanding Major League-leading 486 runs scored – 77 more than second-place Yankees – and 115 home runs despite a recent drought, Toronto should be more than willing to part with their big-league hitters in exchange for some pitching.
It all starts with the cleanup hitter for the Jays. The availability of Encarnacion on the trading block has been controversial for many Blue Jays fans, sparking debates in forums everywhere. Truth be told, however, Toronto can afford to part ways with a former All-Star with 18 homers and 54 RBIs already under his belt. The trade will allow an equally capable Justin Smoak to take first base, and draw in some pitching talent in return.
Veteran catcher and switch-hitter Dioner Navarro is also a valuable trading chip. Any team who could use an experienced catcher with plenty of pop in his bat for the position should take a look at Navarro, who wants to be a starter elsewhere. The 2008 All-Star is coming off of career highs in hits and RBIs, and could easily provide quality hitting for teams.
Brett Cecil has become a bit of a running gag with loyal Blue Jays supporters, with Facebook posts and tweets erupting from the moment Cecil enters the ballgame. At just 28 years of age, and experience as a starter and a closer, Cecil could be a one-inning middle reliever for teams willing to suffer through the heart attacks of his performances.
Everyone knows Blue Jays manager John Gibbons needs to go, but the front office has not managed to pull the trigger. The decisions of Gibbons have often been questionable, and his reluctance or incompetence in defining bullpen roles has been detrimental to Toronto’s success. Starting lineups have been confusing and inexplicable under Gibby’s leadership, and with Ron Washington ready to take another shot at managing, the Jays could use a change in managerial direction.
For years, the Blue Jays were a few quality pitchers away from a deep playoff run, but GM Alex Anthopoulos has not delivered. With the contracts of half the regular roster set to expire at the end of the 2016 season, the time is now for the Jays to make a push.
Although Anthopoulos will probably wait until August 1st to make a trade.
Who will make the biggest splash at the trade deadline? Who will win the AL East this season? Will there be a World Series Champion in the division come next year? It all remains to be seen, but for now, there are 13 AL East All-Stars in Cincinnati, ready to secure home field advantage for the Fall Classic.
It’s stargazing time, folks!