The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants are at it again.
With roughly 70 games in the 2015 season completed, the old rivals are separated by just one game for the lead in the National League West, setting the stage for a captivating summer battle for bragging rights. Or, in other words, more of the same old story.
The latest chapter, last week’s three-game set in Los Angeles, was taken by the Giants—giving San Francisco a 9-3 record against LA this season. While the Giants clearly have the Dodgers’ number right now, Los Angeles still holds the division lead due to their .610 winning percentage against the rest of baseball—an indication to some that they are still the better team.
The stats would appear to back up this claim.
Los Angeles currently ranks near the top of all of MLB in several batting, pitching and fielding categories, including team OPS (second), team ERA (fourth), quality starts (third), strikeouts (second), BAA (sixth) and team fielding percentage (second). If that’s not a well-rounded team, I don’t know what is.
San Francisco, on the other hand, ranks eleventh, tenth, thirteenth, twenty-first, thirteenth and tenth in the same categeories—a more accurate reflection of their .535 winning percentage than the Dodgers’ marks.
So if Los Angeles has such superior stats, why don’t they have a larger division lead, then?
The key reason is the Dodgers’ inability to play up to their potential against winning teams. Los Angeles has not looked the part of a division leader against playoff contenders, producing an unsightly 8-19 mark against the Giants, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals. Besides the fact that they’ve played more games against losing teams (44) than winning teams (27)—potentially boosting their stats—the Dodgers have also performed well below their averages at the plate against winning clubs.
In those 27 games, LA is hitting a combined .237 with a .380 SLG, .685 OPS and 2.8 runs scored per game—quite a decline from the .270 BA, .473 SLG, .824 OPS and 5.1 runs they’ve scored per game against teams under .500. With LA’s pitchers actually posting a lower ERA against winning teams than losing ones, the Dodgers’ bats are clearly to blame.
The advanced stats also suggest that the Dodgers are underperforming.
According to FanGraphs’ BaseRuns standings, which show what a team’s record should look like based on their “context-neutral performance,” Los Angeles should have a 45-26 record—or six more wins than they currently have. By these standards, LA should also have the best record in baseball, with the BaseRuns standings suggesting they—and not St. Louis—should be the only team with a winning percentage over .600.
San Francisco’s estimated BaseRuns record, meanwhile, is 37-34—indicating they are playing almost exactly (they are 38-33) as their “context-neutral performance” suggests they should.
So what does all of this mean? Not much if LA can’t get the real victories—you know, the ones that actually count.
With a batting order that features some of the game’s top hitters, there’s no reason why the Dodgers should be having so many issues hitting against good teams. FanGraphs’ BaseRuns standings certainly suggest that they’ll be able to turn things around, but whether they actually do is another story.
Even after the Dodgers’ 10-2 rout of the Giants on Sunday, San Francisco’s pitchers have posted a much better ERA (3.31) against the Dodgers than they have against everyone else (3.84). While San Francisco certainly has the pieces in their rotation to limit the Dodgers, a larger sample size of games between LA and other .500+ ball clubs is necessary to give us an idea if Giants pitchers deserve credit for the team’s 9-3 record against Los Angeles.
One thing is for certain: if the Dodgers continue to hit poorly against all of the good teams they face, it won’t matter—San Francisco will run away with the division anyway.