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The PAT Has Changed (And Not For The Last Time)

Adam Vinatieri warms up during the pre-game of Super Bowl XXXIX. The Patriots didn’t need a last second field goal, but his 22-yard field goal made the difference in the game. II Marine Expeditionary Force Marines saw it from the sidelines, using tickets from the Cleveland Browns’ Hats Off to Heroes program.

I wrote here two months ago that the PAT changes being thrown about were stupid. Yesterday, the NFL officially changed the Point After Touchdown rule for the 2015 season. Their reasoning was to make an “automatic” play a little more exciting.

Extra points are moving back fifteen yards, so the kick is now a 33 yard attempt.  Dean Blandino, the NFL’s VP of officiating, said that NFL kickers made 94% of those kicks last season.  In 2014, there were 1230 extra points attempted, and 1222 were converted, a 99.3 percent conversion rate.  So the NFL’s big change will bring that conversion rate down, so this year, only 1156 extra points would be converted.  So the NFL made this “game changing” decision over 66 points, or .2578 points per game.  In the grand scheme of things, this is meaningless, but it won’t be meaningless to the team that loses a game because their kicker missed a longer extra point.

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No matter what the NFL says, this will not cause teams to go for two more often.  The 2 point conversion rule did not change, it’s still from the 2 yard line, but it’s always been a 50/50 shot at best.  Last season, NFL teams had a 47.4% success rate, going 28 for 59.  Yes, you read that right.  There were 59 two point attempts last season, or .23 per game.  Coaches are not going to gamble with a free point (and let’s face it, 94% is still a free point) so at the end of the day, nothing is going to change.

Not in 2015 anyway, but the bomb will likely drop in 2016.  It was reported this morning, via Rob Glauber of Newsday, that the NFL will consider moving the PAT back further next year if the “conversion rate doesn’t fall significantly lower than 99%.”  So what’s significant?  Is 5 points to 94% significant?  Do they want it to fall to 72%?  It seems like the end game of this is to eliminate the PAT all together.  I see that definitely happening by 2020.

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