In most professional sports, the politics of the playground are far from mind. Of course, even as adults, we don’t want to be picked last, to be in the final group of athletes bringing up the rear, but when it comes to professional sports in America, whether the team you cheer for ends up dead last, or three places above the bottom, seems to matter little. In fact, in the NFL, some fans of floundering franchises actually root against their own teams near the end of a bad year, in hopes of earning the top draft choice. In the English Premier League, however, no one wants to finish last; the consequences are dire.
EPL Football: A Pretty Penny
Should a team finish at the bottom of the Premiership, they are then relegated to England’s second-tier league, the English Championship. The difference in a club’s income between playing in the English Premier League and the English Championship is measured in the tens of millions. The gap in revenue between a season in the EPL and in the Championship was already roughly £40m this season, and next year that figure looks to be closer to £50m. Thus, the race to finish above the EPL’s Relegation Zone—the bottom three spots in the table—carries with it a prize roughly 40 times larger than the purse for the Kentucky Derby. These teams aren’t just playing for pride.
Champions Chelsea have already been crowned, but do we have a sure-fire bottom-feeder this year? The ignominious place of dead last has yet to be decided, but two of the three teams to be relegated are all but in the bag. Currently sitting bottom with 26 points are Burnley, who haven’t scored a goal since March. That one goal came in dramatic fashion, as it secured a 1-0 victory over Manchester City, but Burnley are done and dusted, and will have to try their luck in the Championship.
Queen’s Park Rangers are second to last, but are only one point ahead of Burnley with 27. What’s more, the team directly above them, Sunderland, have a game in hand, and QPR will need to repeat Burnley’s heroics with a win against Man City on Sunday should they retain even the slimmest of hopes not to be dropped from the EPL. But, then again, even if they do win, they’ll need to pull out back-to-back victories in order to truly be in contention for an EPL place next year—and that’s something they have failed to do all season.
It’s Anyone’s Race (to Lose)
For the third and final relegation place, however, the race is wide, wide open. After West Brom, who are surely clear of the drop in 13th place with 40 points, there are five clubs separated by only two points. Currently in the final relegation place sit Sunderland, with 33 points; next up are Hull City and Leicester City on 34, with Leicester winning on goal difference; above them are tied Aston Villa and Newcastle United on 35 points, with Villa edging out Newcastle on goals.
Will the table stay as it is? Not likely. Sunderland have a game in hand against their relegation rivals, but that game is against Arsenal—and they must face Chelsea, too. Hull City had been playing brilliantly through April, but began May by getting shellacked by the Gunners 3-1 (though their one goal was a beauty), and they must finish the season against Manchester United. Leicester City, once seemingly doomed to the drop, have been on a tear since the end of March, having lost only to Chelsea in their last five matches, but it’s possible that their remaining three will all be against teams with something to play for, relegation in QPR and Sunderland, and Europa League football in Southhampton. Newcastle are in a good position in terms of points, but it seems that everyone at St. James’ Park is in conflict; the fans hate the owner, the manager hates the players, and the players hate the manager.
Mark Your Calendars
With just two points separating these five clubs, it’s hard to say for certain who will stay, and who will go down to that third and final relegation position. With the right odds on the betting line, I’d wager that Villa, Newcastle, and even Leicester all avoid the drop—but in such close quarters in terms of points, everything is a shaky proposition. Will Leicester’s fine form desert them, leaving them back in the relegation zone, where they’ve spent most of this season? Will Sunderland’s game in hand at the Emirates provide their fans with a moment of brilliance that pulls them up above Hull? With three weeks left, it’s still anyone’s race to lose.
But in a fraught and unpredictable race, one thing is certain: a handful of matches will be key. The first of two especially pivotal fixtures comes this Saturday, May 9th, as Hull City host bottom of the league Burnley. Burnley are beyond help at this point, but if Hull can bounce back from their loss at home to Arsenal, they’ll be in good shape—or at least the best shape they possibly can be, seeing as they face Tottenham and Man U for their final two matches. If Hull are to avoid the drop, they need all three points this weekend. Against the worst side in the league, and playing at home, they seem poised to do so, but the pressure will be on for Steve Bruce and his boys.
May 16th, however, offers perhaps an even more important fixture in the race to avoid the drop: Sunderland vs. Leicester City. Sunderland, currently sitting in the final relegation spot, will have their home crowd behind them, and to take points off a fellow relegation candidate is a mouth water proposition. That same day, Newcastle will face QPR, but sad as it is for the Rangers, they’ll likely have already been doomed come May 16th. Sunderland are not only a point behind Leicester, they also have an atrocious -22 goal difference, 7 worse than Leicester’s. A point for either side would be welcome, but both managers will know that victory would all but secure Premiership football next year—and a small war chest with it.