Dirk Nowitzki’s best days are in the past. No arguing about that anymore. For the majority of his seventeen-year career, Dirk has dominated the NBA with his unique skill set.
Nowitzki is a 7-footer with a the purest of shooting strokes and can sink over 40 percent from the three, 90 percent from the charity stripe and has an indefensible one-legged step back rainbow shot that cannot be blocked, even if you knew it was coming.
Nowitzki’s been a great player for a long time but like every other great, father-time eventually catches up.
Coming off a proficient statistical year, the 36 year-old started this season on fire, hitting 60 percent or better of his shots in six of the Mavs first 10 games, leading some to believe he could sustain his dominance indefinitely.
However, in December, those beliefs were squashed when Nowitzki went on a two-month shooting slump that was unlike anything we’d seen before in his career.
In fact, for over a month between December and January, Nowitzki shot just 27.8 percent from three.
Nowitzki was able to pull himself out of that mid-season slump, but not enough to believe he can play anywhere near the caliber we’ve grown accustomed to.
On the season, Nowitzki fell below his career averages in nearly every statistical category. In fact, he tied for the second lowest averages of his career in points per game (17.3) and rebound per game (5.4).
This is not to say Nowitzki is no longer productive and should retire after this year. But the fact that he averaged only 29.6 minutes, the lowest since his rookie season, means the shift from star player to role player is already well underway.
And that’s OK! Nowitzki can certainly find his place on this team or another – contribute on the offensive end for years to come a la’ Vince Carter and slowly transition into retirement. But right now, with the Mavs down two games to none against the Houston Rockets, Nowitzki’s decline in offensive efficiency and complete lack of defensive ability have made him somewhat of a liability on the court.
Unfortunately for the offensively adept Mavericks, Nowitzki is still their best offensive weapon. This became even more apparent with the news that Chandler Parsons will miss the rest of post season with a knee injury.
Nowitzki’s defense has never been his strong suit and nowhere is his age more evident than on the defensive end. At times, he looks like he simply can’t keep up with the speed of the game. Specifically, when it comes to the Rockets’ pick and roll offense.
Credit to the Rockets for designing their game plan to target pick and rolls at Nowitzki and shame on the Mavericks for allowing him to be in that position.
It’s unfortunate to watch, but in pick and roll situations, Nowitzki’s legs simply don’t move fast enough anymore to either impede the guard or recover on the roller. He’s basically running in circles trying to locate the man he’s supposed to defend. Meanwhile, either Tyson Chandler or Amar’e Stoudemire is left alone in a two on one situation, trying to guard the basket. The result is a 2-0 series deficit.
So what can Nowitzki do to hide his defensive inabilities? Nothing, except try and turn back time.
What can the Mavs do? Well, switching Nowitzki out on picks and rolls is not an option because leaving him in a one-on-one situation with James Harden just won’t do.
In that case, they can do one of two things: Either put Nowitzki on a wing player, which would bring up the same issues in transition defense or simply drop him off the screener.
Instead of having Nowitzki hedge or chase the guard out and try to recover back to his man, the simpler option would be to have him drop off the screener and defend his designated area against the drive. Nowitzki’s difficulty is keeping up with the movement of the play, so the solution would be to not make him move.
The drawback to this would be that Harden or another Rockets guard would get open looks on midrange jumpers. But if you’ve been paying attention to the Rockets’ offensive game plan this season, then you’ve noticed that they either want to take three pointers or point blank two’s. They hate long-range jumpers. In fact, the Rockets are at the forefront of eliminating this shot altogether, but that’s a discussion for another time.
There’s no doubt the Mavs are in trouble in this series for several reasons, but the most glaring one to viewers is Nowitzki’s inability to defend. Rick Carlisle needs to find a way to hide Nowitzki’s defensive deficiency without taking him off the court altogether or this series will be a clean sweep.