Theo Walcott turned 26 last week, and Arsenal honored the pacy winger’s birthday by opening new contract negotiations. While Arsene Wenger enjoys a party as much as the next bloke (um, well, actually, he’s a bit more morose than most), the club isn’t offering Walcott this deal as a birthday present; obviously much more is in play as to why Arsenal are sitting down with Theo.
So, why are they starting negotiations?
Theo Walcott: An Enigma, Wrapped in a Rocket-powered Cyborg
On the face of it, the answer would be that Walcott negotiates contracts at the pace of a drunk, one-legged turtle dipped in molasses (quite the contrast to his speed on the field). Two years ago, when he signed his last contract—which is due to expire after next season, in the summer of 2016—it took months of negotiating, and Arsenal paying arguably a bit over market value in wages to get him to put pen to paper.
But have Arsenal had their money’s worth in those two years? Tough to say. Walcott has had injury problems, and that’s hard to fault him for. After being carted off after a cruciate knee ligament injury against Spurs on January 4, 2014 (cheekily reminding the visiting Tottenham supporters of the scoreline as he sat on the stretcher, holding up two fingers on one hand, a goose egg in the other), it was precisely one year before Theo again started for the Gunners, appearing Jan. 4 of this year against Hull in the FA Cup, and being subbed off in the 75th minute without having notched a goal.
In the next round, however, Walcott returned to the scoresheet against Brighton, and seemed to be in remarkable form for the next several weeks, netting another in his next game—a home 5-0 win against Aston Villa in the EPL—and, though he failed to knock one in against Spurs the following weekend, three days later he scored against Leicester in the EPL, a goal that proved the match winner in Arsenal’s 2-1 victory.
And then, Theo didn’t start for over a month.
Theo Riding the Pine (/ Fancy Racing Seats)
So, when a player who is in his prime at 26, has recently returned to full fitness after injury, fresh from a half-season’s rest, and has scored in three of his last four starts, why the hell would the manager sit his ass on the bench? Hint: it’s not because Wenger was pouting, morose, or even because he was passively aggressively encouraging Walcott to give up football in order to pursue writing children’s books full time. (No, really, those are real.)
Rather, it’s because, despite his goalscoring record, Theo Walcott is not playing well. Let me be clear: I love Theo Walcott, and he’s not playing terribly, but he is not playing well enough to earn a starting spot at Arsenal. Now, many might be quick to cite his newfound competition on the wing in Alexis, and they wouldn’t be wrong, at least not entirely. True, Alexis is a hard player to leave on the bench, thanks to his work-rate on and off the ball, and combined ability to both pick out passes and finish nearly every chance he has in front of goal—things that all bring Walcott’s shortcomings into sharp relief.
The last match that Theo started before being benched for five weeks, the EPL match at home to Leicester on February 10th, on paper, he was the hero of the day, scoring Arsenal’s second goal off an excellent volley, a goal that would prove to be the difference in the Gunners 2-1 victory. So, why then was he put up into those ridiculous Recaro racing seats?
Goals win games. No one is arguing this. However, getting into good positions, playing off your teammates, and distributing the ball well, all work to produce—you guessed it—goals. In Theo Walcott’s seventy-two minutes of action against Leicester, he completed only six passes. Yes, seriously. Six. Further, Walcott only averaged one touch of the ball every four minutes, and while he made one of those touches count more than most in the match, his positioning, and, relatedly, his passing need improvement.
And, despite his goal record in February, so does his finishing. While Walcott’s goal against Leicester was fabulous, it should have been his second. Early on, Mesut Ozil sliced open Leicester with a perfectly timed, perfectly waited pass to the on-rushing Walcott. Walcott had, to his credit, timed his run immaculately, and it was one of the rare moments in which he found himself in a great position. His touch took him wide, and what should’ve been a sure-fire goal went to waste.
Then, when he was finally again given the start five weeks later, in Arsenal’s March 17 match against West Ham, how did he fair? In a word, poorly. The same sort of early chances saw Walcott sent through on goal—even more than against Leicester—and again saw him fluff it. Arsene Wenger has his critics, to be sure, but after a month on the bench, Walcott’s performance is among many things that suggest the French Economist who arrived from Japan still knows more than most of us.
Pen to Paper?
If Walcott isn’t performing as clinically in front of goal as Arsene demands, if his positioning and passing seem poor as of late, and if he can’t even break into the starting XI on a consistent basis behind Alexis’ combination of passing, positioning, finishing and work-rate, then why is Arsenal offering him a new contract? We might borrow one answer from Wall Street: Buy Low, Sell High. Walcott’s combination of injury and mediocre play has left him farther down the pecking order than he’s been in years at the Emirates, and while Roy Hodgson called him up this weekend against Lithuania, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll be starting the Euro ’16 Qualifier.
The other answer, in tandem with the former, would be depth. If Arsenal can secure Theo’s services through his 29th year, they’ll have a fantastic option off the bench in years to come—or, should his form improve, in the starting XI. But that starting spot seems somewhat unlikely at the moment. Even with Santi Cazorla playing more centrally in the classic #10 role, he’s not likely to start in front of either Alexis or Welbeck. Further, both of those men have proven themselves more consistent in front of goal, should Giroud get injured or fall out of form, so the central striking role—one that Walcott has long coveted—is also an unlikely option for him.
But the cynic’s answer—and one that, in this instance, I’m more likely to subscribe to—is that Arsenal are testing the waters before acquiescing to a summertime sale. Let me be clear: “the waters,” in this instance, are Theo Walcott’s loyalty to Arsenal. Now, if he refuses to sign and leaves in the summer, he’s unlikely to rouse the ire of Arsenal supporters the way Robin ‘Dutch Skunk’ van Persie or $amir Nasri have in the past, despite how fickle and unreasonable football supporters are wont to be. Still, Arsenal know that, in Theo Walcott, they have a great asset, and a man to whom they gave a great opportunity at a young age, at once. Despite Walcott’s somewhat pedestrian form, Arsenal are wise to offer him new terms. If he denies them, so be it; a player on the fringes of the starting XI can be capitalized on this summer. If he signs, then Arsenal have a long-beloved, talented forward still in his prime with many matches to rediscover his best football. And let’s not forget: Theo Walcott’s best football is some of the best in the world.