Although it might be said that neither side played completely up to their potential, Manchester United’s 1-2 loss to Arsenal at Old Trafford on Monday was certainly a thrilling affair. A Wayne Rooney goal (seemingly inevitable against the Gunners) from an inch-perfect Angel di Maria cross, a controversial sending off, some remarkably heroics in goal from David de Gea, and a bit of revenge for Danny Welbeck, netting the winner against his former club—whether the outcome left you ecstatic or dejected, it was a contest that lived up to its hype.
But the import of that outcome goes beyond merely the Cup itself, or at least so said Manchester United manager Louis Van Gaal. Speaking last week, the Dutchman suggested that this game would provide an edge in the EPL for whomever came out the victor. The Red Devils’ manager was politic in his comments—for better or worse, Van Gaal is no Mourinho—suggesting either team could gain an advantage through the match. Yet, with Arsenal’s recent, abysmal record at Old Trafford, it’s hard not to think that the United boss envisioned his side ending up with that edge.
So, with the match in the books, Arsenal through to a Semifinal at Wembley while the Theater of Dreams is now unlikely to be the home of silverware this season, just what advantage do the Gunners hold?
Welbeck vs. Falcao: A False Dichotomy?
If Danny Welbeck’s goal had a certain poetic justice to it, that poem’s author is downplaying the importance of his literary work. Of course, as with any goal against a former team, there was some drama about it, but anyone who argues that Welbeck was wrong in celebrating is either partisan or misinformed. Danny Welbeck did not force his way out of Old Trafford in search of more money, or even immediate Champion’s League football; he was let go. The chip on his shoulder is, it must be said, smaller than many men might harbor. Did he celebrate the goal against United? Yes, but it was clearly a visceral joy, not a ‘run the length of the pitch to be an asshat’ celebration meant to rub it in the faces of those who used to support him. Even after the fact, Welbeck made a point of emphasizing that he “tried to be respectful” to the home fans, and was simply happy to have scored the goal, regardless of opposition.
Welbeck deserves respect and applause for refusing to gloat against a team that, essentially, told him he wasn’t good enough, but the striker’s polite demeanor aside, the goal does have implications. It was important for Danny himself, no matter who the opposition was, as he has been struggling to return from injury, and to form, in this calendar year; the goal was his first since December 28th, against West Ham. Additionally, no matter how much “respect” Danny offers publicly (and, once again, he deserves plaudits for doing so), inwardly, he must be satisfied with this goal, and with this victory. Whether you’re fitting pipes, writing copy or scoring goals, no one likes to be told they aren’t good enough, and everyone, even alleged altruists, loves proving the doubters wrong.
In addition to its import for Welbeck’s own confidence and form, it also provides a sharp contrast to the man who was to be Welbeck’s replacement: Radamel Falcao. Having scored only four goals for United in twenty appearances this season, Falcao looked on from the bench for the full 90 minutes on Monday. He did get his time on the pitch this week, however—for United’s U-21’s. Van Gaal, ever sure-worded, dismissed any notion that such a selection was an insult, insisting that Falcao’s relegation to the reserves is not a harbinger of the striker losing his place in the squad, nor a confirmation that Welbeck’s sale to Arsenal was a mistake.
But this is simply spin. Here are some facts: after his services were deemed superfluous in Manchester, Danny Welbeck joined Arsenal this summer for £16m. Radamel Falcao, should United decide to keep him at the end of this season, will cost a cool £44m. Danny Welbeck scored the winning goal at Old Trafford to send Arsenal to Wembley next month in the FA Cup Semifinal, against either Bradford or Reading. Radamel Falcao scored a goal this week, too, against Tottenham Hotspurs’ U-21 reserves. (The reserves won’t, for the record, be traveling to Wembley as a result.) With a price tag of less than half of Falcao’s, Welbeck has eight goals to his name this season, double the Colombian’s tally.
Of course, Welbeck and Falcao have different styles of play, and to suggest that Falcao was a clear-cut, 1-for-1 replacement within the team would be reductive. Further, the outcome of Monday’s quarterfinal doesn’t guarantee that Welbeck will be on fire, or even in form, or that Falcao won’t break out of his funk. Still, with one man on the bench for the full 90, and the other a match-winning goalscorer, the contrast’s relief could hardly be sharper.
Fixtures, Fixtures, Fixtures
The momentum of not only individual players, but entire squads is as important for success as it is difficult to delineate. Certainly, leaving Old Trafford with a win will buoy the Gunners’ spirits, while disheartening the Red Devils. But whether or not that will carry into the coming weekend’s fixtures—much less the rest of the EPL season as a whole—is hard to say.
The fixtures themselves, however, are more definite (if not entirely set in stone, thanks to television scheduling; the EPL would probably kickoff the last day of fixtures at midnight if Rupert Murdoch saw fit). Save the most cynical, cup-rubbishing of supporters, it’s safe to say that Arsenal fans were happy, and United fans disappointed this past Monday. Still, if bowing out of the FA Cup dealt a death blow to United’s trophy hopes this season, it might’ve actually bolstered their chances of a Champion’s League spot in the EPL.
At present, there is a seven point gap between seventh place Southhampton and eighth place Stoke City, meaning that the race for the top four is, essentially, limited to the top seven sides in the EPL. Against those seven teams, Arsenal have only three fixtures remaining in their EPL calendar, and only one away from home, hosting Liverpool and Chelsea, and traveling back to Old Trafford. United, on the other hand, have five matches left against the top seven teams, including trips to Anfield and Stamford Bridge. While one might argue that the opportunity to take points off the opposition has its advantages, few would suggest that Sergio Aguero and Manchester City or Diego Costa and Chelsea are preferable opponents to, say, Yaya Sanogo and Crystal Palace.
As an Arsenal fan, I’m thrilled to see the Gunners on their way to Wembley, backed by a legion of yellow ribbons. But with a match against Monaco in the Champion’s League next week already in the offing (itself a squad-selection quagmire, caught between expectation of competition and pragmatic acquiescence to fate), the FA Cup does add more tiring matches to the calendar, and distract Arsenal from the EPL. Most in attendance at Old Trafford last Monday will have been disappointed by the match, but few can argue that, now, their team has one goal, and one alone: Champion’s League Qualification. Louis Van Gaal is no Buddhist monk, but surely he also must appreciate the advantages of one-pointedness-of-mind.