It has now been well over five years since well-educated journalists began questioning whether the Spurs and their core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili were in decline. The reasoning is usually as straightforward as it is similar – they are too old and have played too many minutes. After losing to the Heat in gut-wrenching fashion in the 2013 Finals, many people assumed the physical and emotional toll of a long playoff run would be enough to finally push them over the edge. Instead they came out with a vengeance blowing through the league en route to a 62-20 record, the first seed in the West and an eventual NBA title after decisively beating the Heat in 5 games.
This season has been much more of a struggle. They have dealt with injuries in the starting lineup to Tony Parker (missed 14 games) and Kawhi Leonard (18) as well as key reserves Patty Mills (34), Marco Belinelli (19), and Tiago Splitter (24) giving more minutes to players like Cory Joseph and Aron Baynes, and even letting Matt Bonner stand in the corners for 15 minutes a game.
Whether due to lingering injury issues, rustiness, decline, or regression, when the injured players have played they have been far less effective than last year. Parker has been hampered by a hamstring injury and has put up his worst numbers since his rookie year. Leonard has once again provided excellent defense and rebounding, but he has been inconsistent offensively as his role on that end continues to grow. Mills and Belinelli who both had career years last season and played key roles in the playoffs have missed significant time, and Belinelli who had a secretly excellent year last year averaging 11.4 points and shooting 48.5% from the floor and 43% from deep has seen his numbers drop back to career averages (all stats courtesy of basketball-reference.com). Joseph and Baynes have produced exceptionally well in extended minutes and Bonner, although he lacks the breathtaking athleticism of his younger self, he can still provide floor spacing. The problem is that giving players who have excelled in complementary roles extended minutes forces other players into action. In the Western Conference where the margin of error is so small on a night to night basis, the combination of injuries and subpar performances from players dealing with injuries has been enough to bring them back to the pack.
One of the keys to the Spurs run of dominance is the consistency of the Duncan, Parker, Ginobili trio. Led by Duncan, who has yet to put up a season with a PER under the 21.3 he posted last year, they have maintained ridiculous efficiency on a per minute basis, even if those minutes have shrunk. Popovich and the Spurs have earned every bit of their reputation for maximizing talent and giving career role players and castoffs opportunities to succeed in their system but the sustained excellence and team first philosophy of all three stars makes the process much easier. That is why the lack of production this season from Parker, and to a lesser degree Ginobili, is troubling.
Popovich has recently commented that if Parker is not playing at the same level as in years past, the Spurs have no chance at repeating. His ability to push the pace, get into the paint, and run the offense is essential to their sustained success. That much seems obvious. The question then becomes, if he and the rest of the ailing Spurs are able to get healthy for the playoffs, do they have a chance?
Whether it was Popovich’s intention all along given the toll of consecutive trips to the finals – over the past two years the Spurs have played a ridiculous 44 playoff games. That’s over half a season, which alone fails to account for the increase in minutes for the stars – or whether early season injuries and fast starts by several teams out west made the prospect of a top seed unlikely, it appears that the Spurs main focus is to be healthy and playing well by the time the playoffs come. Barring an injury to Duncan they will make the postseason again and they are still only 3 games out of the third seed in the muddled West. It seems unlikely, however, that they would push too hard for position and possibly jeopardize their ability to be running on all cylinders in the playoffs. Ideally they would like to avoid the bottom two seeds, which would mean playing the Warriors or Grizzlies in the first round, but there are no easy matchups in the west.
Which brings us to their struggles against the upper echelon of the Western Conference this year. After losing both ends of a brutal back-to-back in LA against the Clippers and Golden State, the Spurs are now 7-10 against current playoff teams in the West and 14-14 on the road, a sharp fall from 16-11 and 30-11 in the same categories a year ago.
There is plenty of room for optimism and concern. First the concern:
Losing to a Blake Griffin-less Clippers team giving legitimate minutes to Hedo Turkoglu is bad, especially when Deandre Jordan shoots 10-28 from the free throw line.
The road does not get any easier in the Southwest division and the Spurs finish the season with a brutal stretch of GS, @OKC, HOU, @HOU, PHX, @NO.
There is no assurance that Parker will get healthy or that if he does he will return to borderline MVP candidate form.
Their point differential shrinking from 7.7 last year to 3.5 this year combined with the likelihood of having to play meaningful games through the end of the regular season could mean that they are unable to rest as much as they would like.
They are old.
Now the optimism:
Losing to the Warriors in Oakland on the second night of a back-to-back is entirely defensible.
If they can get healthy, they have basically the same team that won the championship last year.
If Parker is healthy, his history would suggest that he will be a very good player and the added rest he has been given as a result of his hamstring will help him stay fresh for the playoffs.
At this time last year, the Spurs were 8-9 against Western Conference playoff teams before finishing the season 8-2.
They are still dominating the East (16-5) albeit slightly less than in years past (2013-14: 24-6, 2012-13: 25-5).
On February 26, 2014 they started a 19 game winning streak. They haven’t lost a game in March since 2013.
Patty Mills is still waving towels.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=NzpXr4JnA8E
Tim Duncan.
Gregg Popovich.
As it has several times in the past, my gut tells me that the Spurs don’t have enough left in their collective tank to make another extended playoff run. The extra half season they have played over the past two years has to catch up to them and the fact that the West is ridiculously good and deep means that there are no nights off. In the games against the Clippers and Warriors, the Spurs kept themselves in the game for a while but over time were unable to keep up with the athleticism and individual playmaking of their opponent. Due in part to Parker’s current limitations, both Chris Paul and Stephen Curry had excellent games, a fact that does not bode well for the Spurs in a conference and league overrun with point guard talent.
All that being said, the Spurs have proven my gut incorrect plenty of times before, so one more time would not come as a shock. Short of the Warriors who look unstoppable and the Grizzlies who match up well, I would still favor a healthy Spurs in a 7 game series against anyone in the West based on their experience and edge in coaching, and given the depth of the conference it is not inconceivable that they could avoid both in the playoffs. As it stands, though, too many things have to break their way to feel comfortable predicting yet another extended playoff run.