So we’ve made it to the end. Nine teams have punched their playoff ticket, with three spots up for grabs (although the AFC South is all but wrapped up). Five teams are still mathematically alive for those three spots and we will break them all down here. We’ll start with the NFC because that is pretty straight forward.
Carolina Panthers (14-1) – Clinch homefield advantage throughout the Playoffs with a win over Tampa Bay or an Arizona loss vs Seattle. They can fall no lower than #2.
Arizona Cardinals (13-2) – The NFC Playoffs go through the desert if they beat Seattle and Carolina loses to Tampa Bay. Arizona would win the tiebreaker due to conference record.
Washington Redskins (8-7) – Locked into the #4 seed. The Redskins can actually rest their starters in Sunday’s game at Dallas as they prepare to host a playoff game.
Green Bay Packers (10-5) – The Packers are NFC North Champions with a victory over the Vikings Sunday night. A loss would mean the five seed for Green Bay.
Minnesota Vikings (10-5) – Much like the Packers, the Vikings win the NFC North with a win Sunday night at Green Bay. A loss means Minnesota is the Wild Card. They will be the #5 seed if the Seahawks lose in Arizona, or the #6 seed if Seattle wins.
Seattle Seahawks (9-6) – Seattle is the #5 seed with a win and a Packers win. A loss to Arizona or a Green Bay loss means the 6 seed for the Seahawks.
That wasn’t so bad, now we’ll check the AFC
New England Patriots (12-3) Yesterday’s loss didn’t hurt New England too much. They will be the Number one seed in the AFC if they win at Miami next week. A loss would drop them to the 2 seed if tonight’s winner (either Cincinnati or Denver) wins next week as well.
Cincinnati Bengals (11-3) – The AFC North Champions can do no worse than the 3 seed. They can get to #1 if they win their final two and New England loses next week at Miami. A win tonight guarantees them a first round bye. A loss doesn’t doom them to playing wild card weekend, but they will then need Denver to lose to San Diego next week.
Denver Broncos (10-4) – Now things get interesting. Due to their win over New England earlier in the season, Denver is still in play for the #1 seed in the conference. They can get there with wins tonight and next week, as well as a Patriots loss to the Dolphins. A loss tonight drops the Broncos from the 2 seed to the six seed because Kansas City holds the tiebreaker. So the Broncos need to keep winning to get the bye, because one loss could cost them the division and two losses could cost them the playoffs all together.
Kansas City Chiefs (10-5) – The Chiefs keep on winning and have clinched a playoff berth. They can get as high as the 3 seed by winning the AFC West, or they can be as low as the 6 seed. The Chiefs win the AFC West with a win next week at home over the Raiders and ONE Broncos loss. Either tonight vs the Bengals or next week vs the Chargers. If Denver holds serve and wins the division, the Chiefs are the 5 seed with a win, and the six seed with a loss and a Jets win over Buffalo.
New York Jets (10-5) – The Jets snatched control of their own destiny with their win over the Pats yesterday. A victory over Buffalo in Week 17 is all that stands in the Jets way. We all know that Rex Ryan would love nothing more than to stick it to the Jets, so expect Buffalo to come to play. The Jets can get to the five seed with a win and a Kansas City loss, or a win and two Denver losses. The Jets miss the playoffs with a loss and a Pittsburgh win UNLESS the Broncos lose twice
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) – Pittsburgh had it all in front of them but blew it yesterday at Baltimore. Now they need a win and some help. The easiest way is a win at Cleveland coupled with a Jets loss at Buffalo. They can also get in even if the Jets win if they beat Cleveland and Denver loses to Cincy and San Diego. If all three of those losses goes Pittsburgh’s way, they can get as high as the five seed.
Houston Texans (8-7) – They have a 99.7% chance to make the playoffs, and even that is low.
Indianapolis Colts (7-8) – The NFL is fixed if the Colts make the playoffs, there’s no other way to describe it. The Colts need to get the tiebreaker scenario to strength of schedule to even have a shot.
First up, the Colts must beat Tennessee and the Texans must lose at home to Jacksonville. That will put both teams at 8-8.
Tiebreaker 1- Head to head sweep. Not applicable as the two teams split their games.
Tiebreaker 2- Division games. Both teams would be 4-2
Tiebreaker 3- Common opponents- Both teams would be 7-7 in these games
Tiebreaker 4- Conference Record- Both teams would be 6-6
Tiebreaker 5- Strength of Victory. Now it gets fun. Houston currently leads this 51-45. A victory by Indy over Tennessee would cut that lead to 51-48. So the Colts would need to pick up three wins to tie. Unfortunately, a Colts win (which is required in this scenario) would give Houston a 52-48 advantage. So, these six results MUST happen to push this to tiebreaker six.
Denver must defeat Cincinnati AND San Diego
Atlanta must defeat New Orleans
Miami must defeat New England
Buffalo must defeat the Jets
Baltimore must defeat Cincinnati.
If that all happens, then Houston and Indy are tied at 52 wins each.
Tiebreaker 6- Strength of Schedule. Because both teams played mostly the same schedule, this entire thing comes down to Kansas City and Pittsburgh. If all the above happens, the Chiefs lose and the Steelers win, the Colts are the 2015 AFC South Champion. If both the Chiefs and Steelers lose or win? Then Strength of schedule would also be tied.
Tiebreaker 7- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. Houston currently owns an 80 point lead. So the Colts better score, and score, and score, and score some more.
So there you have it. Houston will be your AFC South Champion.