The Houston Astros are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They currently half a game ahead of the Angels in the Wild Card standings. Houston would need to sweep Arizona and have Texas be swept by the Angels to claim the American League West crown. Moral victories are tough pills to swallow, but the fact that Houston is even in the thick of it all after the run of futility they’ve had is remarkable. With that being said, we are going to jump over what is bound to be an ebullient postseason and look towards 2016. Who will be the next team will transition from the top of the draft board to the top of the standings? Here are a couple of candidates from each league to do so with the lists of things going for them making the leap and going against them.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
PROS:
- They have a perennial MVP candidate in Paul Goldschmidt. His presence alone in the lineup forces pitchers to work more carefully to the top of the order. He has hit a stunningly quiet .315 with 31 home runs and 106 RBI. He is also an astute defender, keeping the confidence of his young left side of the infield up by digging out throws.
- Outfielders AJ Pollock and David Peralta are finally healthy and have been great at the plate and with the glove. They’ve combined to hit .312 while launching 36 home runs and driving in 153. Arizona fans have been waiting for these two to reach their prime, and 100% health, and they are finally delivering.
- This past year’s #1 overall pick, shortstop Dansby Swanson, is going to be on a fast track to the Show.
- Team president Tony LaRussa and GM Dave Stewart know a thing or two about winning.
CONS:
- Their pitching is atrocious. Their lowest qualifying ERA from a starter in Rubby De La Rosa’s 4.56. They’ve tried closer by committee, one man at the back, and situational closing with none really producing positive results. They’ll need more than a healthy Patrick Corbin (1.42 ERA in September) to fix this problem.
- They have two powerhouses in their division in the Dodgers and Giants. The NL West will probably never put three teams into the playoffs like the NL Central did this season, so they’ll have to leapfrog one of those two to get in. That is a tough ask.
CINCINNATI REDS
PROS:
- Their infield core is incredibly strong. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Todd Frazier all had solid 2015 seasons. They’ll also be getting back shortstop Zack Cozart and Devin Mesoraco from injury for Spring Training next year. Roster continuity may be Cincinnati’s most valuable asset.
- Much has been made about the Reds’ streak of starting rookies. While it may not pay dividends in 2015, it surely will going forward. After trading Johnny Cueto, the Reds needed to start anew with their staff and they are doing a great job of seeing what they have at the Major League level instead of trying to project from minor league statistics.
- Aroldis Chapman is still one of the most feared closers in all of baseball. Having a bonafide stopper in the ninth inning is a huge boost to any team trying to cement themselves as pennant contenders.
CONS:
- Their outfield is a vortex of “he could do this, but” guys. Jay Bruce can hit for power, but he can’t make contact (26 HR/.225 BA, 142 K). Billy Hamilton can steal bases, but can’t get on base (57 SB/.226 BA, .274 OBP). Whatever journeyman they throw out in the other spot (Jason Bourgeois, Skip Schumaker, or Brennan Boesch) won’t likely be there next year.
- Manager Bryan Price is a powder keg. There is a difference between having fire as a manager (see Bobby Cox or Earl Weaver) and just being a complete lunatic. There is no way to expect discipline and decorum from your players when you can’t show any yourself.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
PROS:
- On a better team Sonny Gray (14-7, 2.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) would be garnering much more attention. He is one of the best young pitchers in the American League and has took the mantle of staff ace with more than flying colors.
- They are a surprisingly durable team with none of their everyday players spending considerable time on the disabled list. Even their midseason call-ups have been integrated into the lineup and kept pace.
- General manager Billy Beane is really good at his job. He’ll make the necessary moves to get this team back into contention, and under their budgetary constraints, in no time.
CONS:
- The A’s were one of the worst fielding teams in the American League. They ranked dead last in the entire sport in fielding percentage (.980) and total errors (122). Shortstop Marcus Semien had the most in the majors (34) and third/second baseman Brett Lawrie also made the top five (24).
- Confusion in the ninth would be a polite way to describe the A’s closer situation. After trading Tyler Clippard to the Mets, the cupboard is bare. Sean Doolittle is a former All-Star, but that looks more like an outlier than the norm. Every other person (Edward Mujica, Ryan Dull, et. al) hasn’t gotten more than a brief look in the ninth.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
PROS:
- Francisco Lindor looks the real deal. He’s dynamite at shortstop and has proven to be pretty damn good at the plate as well (12 HR, .323 BA, .856 OPS). He’s only 21 and should become the face of the franchise over the next few years.
- Current Tribe favorites Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley were able to get through 2015 relatively unscathed. Brantley regressed slightly from his breakout 2014, but was still a menace in the middle of the order (.310 BA, 15 HR, 84 RBI). Kipnis slumped through last year, but has bounced back well. They’ve both been rested regularly with Cleveland out of it, so their numbers look worse than normal.
- They’ve got a potential four horsemen for the future at the top of their rotation. Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and 2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber have had their rough patches throughout this season, but as a unit they are a quite formidable force in the hitter friendly American League.
CONS:
- This team has no killer instinct. Terry Francona is a winning manager, but this team looks to just be going through the motions. Being content for .500 isn’t any way to break through into the playoff picture. Their one recent playoff appearance, the 2012 AL Wild Card game, saw them meekly get shut out.
- Injuries can crop up on any team, but the Indians are especially injury prone. Outside of Brantley and Kipnis, every Indians player has dealt with a long stretch on the DL at some point or another in 2015. It is tough to compete when you have to trot out second stringers on the regular.
What team do you think will be the next team to emulate the Astros’ 2015 campaign? Did I list your pick here? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter either at myself @TREVORutley or the site @sportsftb.