The balance of power in the AFC has been firmly in the grasp of the New England Patriots for nearly a decade and a half. During this reign of terror from Foxboro, there have been several teams that have faded in and out of contention. There has been one team though, save one intentional tank job, that has been the bridesmaid more often than any other in the sport. That team is the Indianapolis Colts.
Armed with one of the league’s most dynamic signal callers in Andrew Luck, the Colts are near lock to make the playoffs every season. Following Luck’s rookie season in which they finished second to Houston, they’ve won the AFC South with next to no opposition. In each progressive postseason, they’ve gone one round further in the playoffs. By that token, the Colts are destined to make Super Bowl 50 (because the NFL is too cool for Roman numerals now). Owner Jim Irsay has come out and said that this is not a “Super Bowl or Bust” season for the team and the coach. He has proven though that his words mean nothing because even with his realistic doctrine, the outspoken Irsay has not yet offered a contract extension to head coach Chuck Pagano. That begs the question, “Is the 2015 season Chuck Pagano’s last stand in Indianapolis?”
Pagano has dealt with a great deal of turmoil during his tenure as the head honcho for the Colts. He started off with a battle against leukemia. Then he had to battle the critics who instead of praising him for his in-season return following intense therapy putting his cancer into remission, called for interim coach and offensive coordinator Bruce Arians to finish the season and keep the job outright. Since then all Pagano has done is win…in the regular season at least.
His first season ended with an unceremonious 24-9 thrashing from the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens. His sophomore campaign saw his team make a miraculous comeback against the Chiefs only to be ousted by those pesky old Patriots in a 43-22 woodshed whooping. Even people who lived under proverbial rocks know how last season ended.
There is something to be said for progress. Luck is becoming more sure of himself and the team found ways to deal with massive injury blows to Robert Mathis and the running back duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard. The AFC South is going to be a cakewalk again this year so the team will once again be judged, and rightfully so, about their performance come January. Is Chuck Pagano coaching for his future?
It seems so. You don’t let a coach flutter in the wind like this if there isn’t an ultimatum in play. He has played with house money for so long. It seems insensitive to say, but would Pagano have been given this much leeway if he didn’t go through the cancer ordeal in him and Luck’s first year in Indy? Better coaches have been fired with better resumes than Pagano. After a while, sleepwalking through the regular season only to get pasted in the postseason becomes grating for even the most understanding of fanbases.
While the Suck for Luck campaign in 2012 netted them their new franchise savior, there is one thing their monotone signal caller can’t do: play defense. Pagano came from Baltimore with the background that he’d be able to turn a defense around that had good parts, but was never really constructed properly. With GM Ryan Grigson, there has been no progress, almost to the point of regression, with the defensive side of the ball. The team looks lost more often than an elite team should, almost hoping that once they give up another score that Luck will just come down and erase their mistake. That is the sign of lazy coaching that got “No Sell” Jim Caldwell run out of town even with a Super Bowl appearance. Pagano was supposed to be better than this. For all the locker room soliloquies and Ric Flair impressions, this team still can’t stop the run. Over his tenure the Colts’ defensive liabilities have gone from a punchline to just a punch in the face.
Barring a Resident Evil-type viral outbreak, this team is going to make the playoffs again in 2015. They’ll do it convincingly as well. The only variable left is how that postseason ends. If by Luck (pun incredibly intended) they win the Lombardi Trophy, Pagano will probably stave off unemployment by default. He’ll have the same fate if Indy is eliminated in a heartbreaking fashion. BUT, if the Colts absorb another pigskin pillaging the likes of what they’ve endured the past three seasons, regardless of what round that occurs in, Pagano will be walking out of that stadium having coached his last game with a horseshoe on his hat.